Vital Signs: electric co-op data *.

• Author: Ganley, Mike

NRECA first produced Vital Signs in 1985. It is an analysis of rural electric system trends based on data reported at the end of the previous calendar year. It examines, among other things, regional and national consumer arid sales growth and cost and rate trends.

The analysis is based on data reported to the Rural Utilities Service (RUS). When NRECA first produced Vital Signs, virtually all rural electric systems were RUS borrowers. Since 1987 when rural electric systems first began prepaying their federal debt, the number of systems included has decreased. This year's analysis is based on a group of 618 RUS borrowers out of the 866 total distribution systems.

CONSUMER GROWTH

According to data released in August by the Rural Utilities Service (RUS), co-op consumer growth continued to outpace the industry as a whole (exhibit 1) though the gap narrowed in 2001. The data, for the 618 RUS co-ops, shows that they added 200,000 new consumers (meters) during 2001.

Consumer data provided by CFC for 808 distribution systems indicate that the entire Rural Electric Network added over 480,000 new customers (meters) in 2001. This means nearly 1.3 million additional persons served by rural electrics.

Exhibits 2, 3 and 4 show the consumer growth patterns (all maps and graphs are based on 618 RUS co-ops for which we have received data). Areas of particularly high consumer growth are the Southeast and Rocky Mountain States. Nationally, two-thirds of the consumer growth occurred in co-ops with service territory near major suburban/metropolitan areas. With a few exceptions (recreation/retirement areas), there has been very low or moderate consumer growth in the Midwest and northern plains states.

KWH SALES GROWTH

KWh sales growth fluctuates from year to year depending on weather and economic conditions. Reflecting the slowing economy and a mild weather year, overall RUS co-op sales grew a modest 2.3% in 2001, down from the robust 6.7% increase in 2000. Maps 5, 6 and 7 show the regional variations in sales growth last year. Irrigation sales remained strong, but declined 5.9% from last year, which had produced a 25% increase over 1999. Overall, small and large C&I sales grew 3.5% and 1.7% respectively. Residential sales were up an average of 2.5% over 2000.

INFLATION

The rate of inflation, as measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index, has been very modest in the past 5 years, especially compared to the double-digit increases of the early 1980s. Inflation...