To Know the Unknown: The Decline in Homicide Clearance Rates, 1980—2000

• Author: Matthew R. Lee,Graham C. Ousey
• DOI: 10.1177/0734016809348360
• Published date: 01 June 2010
• Date: 01 June 2010
• Subject Matter: Articles

Articles

To Know the Unknown: The

Decline in Homicide Clearance

Rates, 1980–2000

Graham C. Ousey,

1

and Matthew R. Lee

2

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the precipitous decline in urban homicide clearance over the past several

decades, this study examines factors that may be linked to within-city, over-time variation in homi-

cide clearance rates from 1980 to 2000. Conceptual arguments focusing on case-level characteristics

of homicides as well as the broader macrosocial context are delineated and empirically tested.

Results from a fixed-effects regression analysis reveal that changes in clearance rates are linked

to changes in the situational characteristics of murder incidents such as the percentage of cases

involving strangers, firearms, other felonies, and arguments. In addition, within-city changes in immi-

gration are found to be associated with lower clearance rates, whereas drug market arrests are

associated with higher clearance rates. Contrary to politically popular assertions, clearance rates

do not appear to be a function of changes in police personnel or workload.

Keywords

clearance rates, public social control, private social control, crime trends, social change

Introduction

In contrast to the glaring spotlight focused on the ‘‘great American crime decline’’ of the 1990s

(Blumstein & Rosenfeld, 1998; Blumstein & Wallman, 2000; Levitt, 2004; Ousey & Lee, 2007;

Zimring, 2007), another significant crime trend has remained in the shadows. The homicide clear-

ance rate—or the share of homicide offenses for which an arrest is made—has exhibited a steady and

substantial decline for most of the last 50 years. Although more than 90%of the homicides were

cleared in 1960, that figure has fallen to just over 60%today (Regoeczi, Kennedy, & Silverman,

2000; Riedel, 2008; U.S. Department of Justice, 2007).

Despite a relative lack of publicity, there are several good reasons why this trend in clearance

rates is disconcerting and deserves additional scrutiny. First, it raises questions about the effective-

ness of recent law enforcement policies and practices aimed at strengthening the dragnet for violent

criminals. Indeed, it seems curious that homicide clearance rates have been declining during a period

in which incarceration rates have been sharply rising and a host of criminal justice reforms (e.g.,

1

Department of Sociology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia

2

Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Corresponding Author:

Graham C. Ousey, Department of Sociology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187. Email: gcouse@wm.edu

Criminal Justice Review

35(2) 141-158

ª2010 Georgia State University

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DOI: 10.1177/0734016809348360

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three strikes laws, the war on drugs, broken windows/zero-tolerance policing) have been implemen-

ted. Second, it signals a decline in punishment certainty and threatens to undermine deterrence prin-

ciples, a key foundation of our criminal justice system. Finally, lower clearance rates indicate that

the state is ineffective at insulating citizens from violent offenders, which may contribute to negative

social reactions such as loss of faith in public officials, an increased sense of fear and insecurity, and

a general proliferation of firearms and other protective weaponry.

To date, the body of scholarship on homicide clearance rates is small and contains a number of

important limitations, providing important opportunities for additional research. In theoretical terms,

the homicide clearance literature is incompletely developed, with a heavy focus on arguments that

focus on the details of homicide cases and comparatively little emphasis on perspectives that link

clearance rates to the broader macrosocial context of the places in which homicides occur (Lee,

2005; Regoeczi et al., 2000; Wellford & Cronin, 1999). This limitation is important because both

criminal events and their investigation take place within a broader social context that influences

behavior, the allocation of resources, and the capacity of individuals and organizations to act.

Compounding theoretical limitations, the small number and inconsistent results of empirical studies

on homicide clearance rates means that strong substantive generalizations are difficult to glean from

the extant literature. Finally, although the over-time decline in homicide clearance rates has been a

substantial and fairly long-running trend (see Figure 1), few extant studies have used longitudinal

research designs that facilitate an investigation of the factors driving the temporal change in

homicide clearance rates. Taken together, these limitations make it clear that much remains to be

learned before the mystery of falling homicide clearance rates can be unlocked. In this study, we

begin to address these limitations by first articulating, and then empirically testing, multiple

conceptual models that may help aid understanding of this issue.

Background and Theoretical Framework

Past attempts to understand variation in homicide clearance rates have typically been focused on the

characteristics of homicide cases themselves. Explanatory arguments within this literature view each

.6 .65 .7 .75 .8 .85

Clearance rate

1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Figure 1. Clearance Rates in Cities of 100,000 or More Population

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