The Long Recovery from the Great Recession: An Introduction

• Author: Jennifer Romich,Michael R. Strain,Timothy M. Smeeding
• DOI: 10.1177/00027162211036030
• Published date: 01 May 2021
• Date: 01 May 2021
• Subject Matter: Introduction

8 ANNALS, AAPSS, 695, May 2021

DOI: 10.1177/00027162211036030

The Long

Recovery from

the Great

Recession: An

Introduction

By

TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING,

JENNIFER ROMICH,

and

MICHAEL R. STRAIN

1036030ANN The Annals Of The American AcademyThe Long Recovery From The Great Recession

research-article2021

The first two decades of the twenty-first century have

been marked by the Great Recession (GR), which was

followed by the longest recovery in U.S. history, here

termed the Long Recovery (LR). The LR lasted more

than 10 years and ended with a pandemic bang in

March 2020. This article introduces the eighteen arti-

cles that make up our review of the effects of the LR on

the working class. What did more than a decade of

economic expansion following the GR do for the work-

ing class and various groups of disadvantaged workers?

We study this question through the lenses of economics,

demography, sociology, and policy. The working class—

lower-middle-income units, especially those whose

adults have low education levels or other credentials—

was hit hard by the GR. Did groups who are usually at a

labor market disadvantage in fact make absolute and

relative gains in incomes and living standards during the

LR? Lessons from the LR will help to inform policy

efforts to sustain the postpandemic economic expan-

sion, which is still under way as of this writing.

Keywords: Great Recession; long recovery; tight

labor market

Dramatic macroeconomic events have

marked the first 21 years of the twenty-first

Timothy M. Smeeding is the Lee Rainwater Distinguished

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the

University of Wisconsin–Madison, where he was former

director of the Institute for Research on Poverty. He is a

fellow of the AAPSS. His recent work has focused on

inequality in income, wealth and consumption, and

social and economic mobility across generations.

Jennifer Romich is a professor of social welfare at the

University of Washington School of Social Work and

faculty director of the West Coast Poverty Center. She

studies resources and economic well-being in families,

with an emphasis on low-income workers, household

budgets, and families’ interactions with public policy.

Michael R. Strain is the director of Economic Policy

Studies and Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy

at the American Enterprise Institute and is also a

research fellow at the IZA Institute of Labor Economics.

Correspondence: smeeding@wisc.edu

THE LONG RECOVERY FROM THE GREAT RECESSION 9

century. The Great Recession (GR; 2007–2009), the largest and longest downturn

since the Great Depression, was followed by the longest recovery in U.S. history.

Of course, the Long Recovery (LR) then ended with a pandemic bang in March

2020. Although the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus and associated policy

responses will be important topics for consideration over the years ahead, the eco-

nomic experience of the LR bears scrutiny as well. Lessons from the LR will help

to inform policy efforts to sustain the postpandemic economic expansion, which is

still under way at this writing. Better longitudinal data on workers, families, and

children can help us in time to understand the divergent economic, health, and

social effects of the COVID recession and recovery.

The LR began in July 2009 and became the longest economic expansion in

recorded U.S. history. In the second half of the twentieth century, and especially

during the roaring 1990s at the end of the twentieth century, such periods of

growth benefited a wide swath of workers, lending truth to the adage that “a ris-

ing tide lifts all boats” (Card and Mas 2016; Krueger and Solow 2002). In con-

trast, while the LR was lengthy, it was also uneven. The GR affected households

in different socioeconomic circumstances quite differently. Over the LR, techno-

logical change and growth in the service sector affected different workers in

myriad ways. And so, the story of the LR from the GR is not simple to tell.

What did more than a decade of economic expansion following the GR do for

the working class and various groups of disadvantaged workers? These are the

questions we seek to answer in this volume. We study those questions through the

lenses of economics, demography, sociology, and policy—and with an eye toward

lessons to be drawn for the pandemic recession and now the recovery, which is still

in progress. The working class—lower-middle-income units, especially those

whose adults have less education or other credentials—were hit hard by the GR.

Economic theory predicts that when unemployment falls to very low levels, such

as those found in the United States during the 2015 to 2019 period, these workers

should fare better as the economy bids up wages and opportunities during a long

recovery. But did that happen? Did groups who are usually at a labor market dis-

advantage in fact make absolute and relative gains in incomes and living standards

during the recovery? This is the basic question that we seek to answer.

Volume Origin and Changes in Focus

In October 2019, we started with this overarching question: what has happened

to the American working class since the GR? The idea came out of an

NOTE: We thank our sponsors: AAPSS Fellow Grant; the Institute for Research on Poverty

(IRP) at Madison and its Economic Self Sufficiency (ESS) Network (https://www.irp.wisc.edu/

poverty-employment-and-self-sufficiency-research-network/) with Office of the Assistant

Secretary for Planning and Education (ASPE) support; the American Enterprise Institute

(AEI); and the West Coast Poverty Center at University of Washington (WCPC). We thank our

authors (who in almost all cases stayed with us, even changing jobs, institutions, and dealing

with changing family responsibilities along the way). And we thank key staffers Maryanna

Mitchell at AEI; Dawn Duren; Rebecca Schwei; Dana Connelly at IRP; Shannon Harper at

WCPC; and the AEI Zoom team.