The Great Divergence that Malthus Missed.

• Author: Grennes, Thomas
• Position: BRIEFLY NOTED

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) predicted that population would rise relative to the supply of natural resources necessary to feed people at subsistence levels over the long term. In 1968, when the world population was 3.5 billion, the biologist Paul Ehrlich echoed Malthus in the best-selling book The Population Bomb, which predicted impending disastrous global consequences from overpopulation.

Centuries after the death of Malthus, many Malthusians continue to warn about excessive population growth in the world. Are they right?

Global demographic data, especially data from poor countries, would seem to vindicate Malthus. Between 1968 and 2017, world population more than doubled to 7.5 billion and the fertility rate in developing countries was approximately three times the rate in developed countries. For example, Nigeria, with a total population of 191 million in 2017, had a fertility rate of 5.5, relative to the world average of 2.4. For many people in poor countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, hunger remains a serious problem, as Malthus expected.

Population in the developing world I However, Malthus and Malthusians missed the dramatic demographic change that has occurred in some developed countries and threatens to occur in many others. Total population is declining in Russia, Japan, and Italy: Russia's decline began in the 1990s, Japan has been declining for the last eight years, and Italy has been declining for the last four. The negative effect of low fertility on Italian population growth has been exacerbated by net emigration of younger Italians. Economic growth in those three countries has been slow because of reduction in their labor force and productivity. Japan has had two decades of near zero economic growth; Italy's gross domestic product per capita, adjusted for inflation, was lower in 2018 than it was in 2000.

In many other developed countries, population would have declined in recent years were it not for immigration. Fertility rates in most rich countries have been below the replacement level of 2.1 for some time. In 2017, the average fertility rate for the rich countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development was 1.7. In the European Union it was 1.6 and the United States was 1.7. Fertility rates in the prosperous countries of Asia have also fallen below replacement level, including 1.4 for Japan, 1.4 for South Korea, 1.2 for Singapore, and 1.6 for China.

Migration /...