The gathering regulatory storm.

• Author: Seng, John
• Position: Legislative proposals for health care reform - Chairman's Agenda: Managing Health Care Costs

The health care reform debate will likely center on legislative proposals which fall into three fundamentally distinct categories.

Any candidate running for office in 1992 who hasn't yet begun to talk about the need for health care reform should call Dick Thornburgh. Or, Magic Johnson.

Senator Harris Wofford's stunning victory over former Attorney General Thornburgh in November's Pennsylvania Senate race occurred in part because the Democrat's emphasis on the need for health care reform struck a deep, resonating chord with voters. Earvin "Magic" Johnson's astonishing revelation, also in November, that he had tested positive for HIV will likely serve to heighten awareness of AIDS and all its concomitant issues -- including the soaring costs of treating the disease -- to new levels of appreciation by the general public.

The Pennsylvania campaign illustrates the increasing significance of health care reform as a political issue today. While Wofford's victory was not seen by most political analysts as a mandate for national health insurance, a byproduct of the Pennsylvania election was that health care reform is an issue both political parties will have to deal with effectively in the 1992 presidential election. Congressional debate over health care reform will likely grow increasingly partisan as the election season builds momentum. The Bush administration and Congress are now running to catch up to American discontent with the health care system and its high costs. As further evidence, a recent Wirthlin Group survey showed that 62% of Americans would like to see major reforms in the U.S. health care system, with nearly four in 10 Americans believing that a "complete overhaul" is needed.

When it comes to catching up with voter discontent, each party has its hands full. Republicans are battling the fact that the party is lagging in proposing any meaningful reforms. Democratic lawmakers, on the other hand, are facing the daunting task of developing a consensus plan to find some common ground among the myriad plans introduced by their colleagues. The Democratic proposals currently under consideration are so scattered that several Capitol Hill staffers admit that consensus within the party is all but unattainable.

This predicament alone will probably prevent Congress from passing any major health reform before the 1992 elections, although Democrats are likely to push smaller, more specific reform bills early next year as evidence of the fact that...