The Effectiveness of Crime Analysis for Crime Reduction

• Author: Rachel Boba Santos
• DOI: 10.1177/1043986214525080
• Published date: 01 May 2014
• Date: 01 May 2014
• Subject Matter: Articles

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2014, Vol. 30(2) 147 –168

© 2014 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/1043986214525080

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Article

The Effectiveness of

Crime Analysis for

Crime Reduction:

Cure or Diagnosis?

Rachel Boba Santos1

Abstract

Many researchers and police chiefs have asked the question, “Does crime analysis

reduce crime?” This question is a difficult one is because the link between crime

analysis and crime reduction is not direct. Just like the use of MRI results does not

cure an illness, crime analysis is the process of using examining data and making

conclusions; it is not a crime reduction strategy (cure) by itself. The connection

between crime analysis and crime reduction is only through an effective police

strategy that uses crime analysis. So, instead of evaluating whether crime analysis

reduces crime, this article examines the role of crime analysis as a component in

specific police crime reduction strategies. The evidence presented is not based on

research of effectiveness of crime analysis, since there is none, but on the effectiveness

research of police approaches, such as the standard model of policing, community

policing, disorder policing, problem-oriented policing, hot spots policing, and the

“pulling levers” focused deterrence approach, as well as popular and new approaches,

such as Compstat, intelligence-led policing (ILP), and predictive policing, and the level

at which crime analysis plays a role in each. Through a qualitative assessment, the

author concludes that there is a clear pattern that crime analysis plays a significant

role in police approaches that are effective, and just as apparent, crime analysis plays

a very limited role in policing approaches that are ineffective. In addition, assessment

of the policing approaches that have not been systematically evaluated, but have been

widely adopted (i.e., Compstat) or are relatively new (i.e., ILP and predictive policing),

reveals that crime analysis plays a central and visible role. This article shows that

crime analysis is a key component in successful crime reduction efforts. Because this

1Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Rachel Boba Santos, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades

Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA.

Email: rboba@fau.edu

525080CCJXXX10.1177/1043986214525080Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeSantos

research-article2014

148 Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice 30(2)

is a qualitative assessment from a fairly broad perspective, several recommendations

are made for future research that will more fully understand the relationship between

crime analysis and police effectiveness.

Keywords

crime analysis, crime reduction, police effectiveness, evaluation

Introduction

The articles in this special issue all address how police can use analysis and data to

be more effective in reducing crime. The contribution of this article is to discuss the

relationship between crime analysis conducted within police departments and polic-

ing strategies that have shown to be effective. Many researchers and practitioners

have asked the question, “Does crime analysis reduce crime?” But none has found

an answer. One of the reasons this question is a difficult one is because the link

between crime analysis and crime reduction is not direct. Crime analysis is the pro-

cess of examining data and making conclusions; it is not a crime reduction strategy

by itself.

Consequently, this article will not attempt to determine whether crime analysis

reduces crime, but instead, will examine the role of crime analysis as a component in

police crime reduction efforts. Thus, the evidence presented is not based on research

of effectiveness of crime analysis, as there is none, but it will focus on the effective-

ness of research results of police approaches and the level at which crime analysis

plays a role in the successful approaches as well as the unsuccessful ones. These polic-

ing approaches include the standard model of policing, community policing, disorder

policing, problem-oriented policing (POP), hot spots policing, and the “pulling levers”

focused deterrence approach, all of which have been intensely researched over the last

several decades. In addition, the article will consider the role of crime analysis in

popular and some newer approaches that have not been systematically evaluated, such

as Compstat, intelligence-led policing (ILP), and predictive policing.

The goal of this article, then, is to examine the crime reduction effectiveness

evidence together with the role crime analysis plays in each one of these policing

approaches to determine whether there is a relationship between the level at which

and how crime analysis is used and the effectiveness of a particular strategy. Thus,

the question here is not whether crime analysis reduces crime but whether crime

analysis is a necessary component in the police approaches that are effective in

reducing crime.

The article begins with the definition of crime analysis, discusses the relationship

between crime analysis and crime reduction, and presents how crime analysis will be

assessed within the policing strategies. Then, an assessment will be made about the

crime reduction effectiveness and the role of crime analysis within each strategy. The

article concludes with a discussion of the assessments as a whole, the patterns that

emerge, and considerations for future research on crime analysis.