The Effect of Permissive Gun Laws on Crime

• Published date: 01 November 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00027162231164865
• Author: John J. Donohue
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Subject Matter: The Efficacy of Interventions

92 ANNALS, AAPSS, 704, November 2022

DOI: 10.1177/00027162231164865

The Effect of

Permissive Gun

Laws on Crime

By

JOHN J. DONOHUE

1164865ANN The Annals of the American AcademyTHE EFFECT OF PERMISSIVE GUN LAWS ON CRIME

research-article2023

Substantial evidence has documented a powerful

“instrumentality” effect: the more lethal the weaponry

employed, the greater the likelihood that death will

result from any given assault. This finding provides the

foundation for the subsequent findings that a variety of

measures that restrict the prevalence or limit the per-

missible types of lethal weaponry can lower the costs of

gun violence. The literature has advanced to the point

that there is a sufficient empirical basis to call for the

elimination of right-to-carry laws, to reestablish bans on

assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, to main-

tain restrictions on youthful access to guns, and to

repeal stand-your-ground laws. The Supreme Court’s

recent decision expanding the scope of the Second

Amendment in New York State Rifle and Pistol

Association v. Bruen shows a concerning disinterest in

the importance of these empirical findings.

Keywords: gun safety regulation; crime; assault weap-

ons; right-to-carry laws; stand your ground

laws; mass shootings

Introduction

Over the last 40 years, there have been several

important trends concerning firearms and their

regulation. First, as documented in a final

report from the General Social Survey, “Trends

in Gun Ownership in the United States, 1972 to

2014,” “The 31.0% of households reported hav-

ing a firearm in 2014 [was] the lowest level of

gun ownership in the last 40-some years,” which

was primarily caused “by the decrease in the

Correspondence: jjd@law.stanford.edu

John J. Donohue is a Stanford law professor, an econo-

mist, as well as a lawyer, and conducts empirical

research in criminal justice. He is a member of the

American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a research

associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

NOTE: The author thanks Matthew Bondy, Theodora

Boulouta, Samuel Cai, Ammar Inayatali, Mira Korb,

and Nicolas Peña Tenjo for outstanding research assistance.

THE EFFECT OF PERMISSIVE GUN LAWS ON CRIME 93

popularity of hunting.”1 According to a 2017 Pew Research poll, the percentage of

gunowners who say their main reason for possessing a firearm is for protection has

risen to 67 percent, while only 38 percent now list hunting as a major reason.2

Second, advances in firearm technology continue to develop increasingly

lethal weaponry that can fire more quickly, fire more rounds without reloading,

and create more grievous wounds to humans if struck. For example, in 1981,

John Hinckley managed to shoot Ronald Reagan and three others when he fired

six rounds from his six-shot .22-caliber revolver, and all four victims survived. A

handgun assassin today would be far more likely to use the current most popular

handgun—the Glock 19 pistol with a fifteen-round magazine and nine-millimeter

(mm) ammunition. With this weapon, many more shots could have been fired,

hitting more victims, whose chances of survival would have been far lower.

Indeed, when Jared Loughner attempted to assassinate Representative Gabbie

Giffords in 2011, he enhanced the lethality of his Glock 19 pistol by using a

thirty-three-round high-capacity magazine, enabling him to kill six and wound

fourteen.3

Third, while the percentage of Americans owning guns has not changed dra-

matically over time, the percentage who have more lethal weaponry, from semi-

automatic pistols to assault rifles with high-capacity magazines, has grown

substantially. In the face of this growing lethality, many of the major legal devel-

opments in the U.S. over the last 40 years have moved in the direction of greater

permissiveness towards firearms.

The proliferation of right-to-carry (RTC) and permitless carry laws—and the

promotion of assault weapons—became major gun industry initiatives that were

designed to and were greatly successful in expanding the sale of weapons. The

inevitable consequence, and indeed the objective of the increased carrying of

weapons, is to stimulate their defensive use against real or perceived threats.

Laws designed to be more protective of these defensive uses have also prolifer-

ated in the form of stand-your-ground (SYG) laws that seek to provide greater

protections to those who use lethal force when they have reason to feel they are

in imminent danger.

One particularly striking illustration of how these developments can create

havoc occurred in May 2015, when hundreds of motorcycle enthusiasts congre-

gated outside a restaurant in Waco, Texas. Although concerns about the rising

tensions between rival motorcycle gangs had led to the stationing of uniformed

police and SWAT team members at the scene, a fight broke out that soon led to

a shootout involving both gang members and law enforcement. Although the

police gained control and the shooting stopped after just two minutes, nine peo-

ple were dead and twenty were injured. A total of 177 bikers were arrested and

151 firearms were seized at the scene, but all charges were ultimately dropped

because Texas’s SYG law allowed gang members to simply assert their right to

self-defense (Binelli 2022). Prior to 1996, when Texas’s RTC law went into effect,

all the gang members carrying concealed weapons would have been violating

Texas law.

Of course, gun carrying can generate benefits if it deters criminals, allows

victims to thwart criminal attacks, or even kills or maims enough attackers. The