The Effect of Concealed Handgun Carry Deregulation in Arizona on Crime in Tucson

• Author: Michael R. Smith,Matthew Petrocelli
• DOI: 10.1177/0887403418782739
• Published date: 01 October 2019
• Date: 01 October 2019
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403418782739

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2019, Vol. 30(8) 1186 –1203

© The Author(s) 2018

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DOI: 10.1177/0887403418782739

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Article

The Effect of Concealed

Handgun Carry Deregulation

in Arizona on Crime in

Tucson

Michael R. Smith1 and Matthew Petrocelli2

Abstract

In 2010, the Arizona legislature effectively deregulated concealed handgun carry in

the state by passing Senate Bill (SB) 1108, which eliminated licensing and training

requirements for concealed carry. Although researchers have extensively examined

the impact of state adoption of concealed carry laws, almost nothing is known about

the effects of deregulating concealed carry altogether. This study contributes to

the more guns, less crime debate by examining the impact of Arizona’s decision

to deregulate concealed carry. Using a multiple time-series research design with

an experimental (Tucson) and control city (El Paso), the present study examines

the impact of deregulation on handgun-related violent crime and gun larcenies in

Arizona’s second largest city—Tucson. We find that the passage of SB 1108 had

no impact on handgun-related offenses that could be expected to change following

deregulation. The implications of these findings for policy making and future research

are discussed.

Keywords

concealed weapons, gun control policy, violent crime

Lott and Mustard (1997), 20 years ago, published their seminal article entitled “Crime,

Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns” and opened a vociferous debate

over the impact of right-to-carry laws on crime in the United States. Lott (2000)

1The University of Texas at San Antonio, TX, USA

2Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, IL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Michael R. Smith, The University of Texas at San Antonio, 501 W. Cesar E. Chavez Blvd., San Antonio,

TX 78207, USA.

Email: m.r.smith@utsa.edu

782739CJPXXX10.1177/0887403418782739Criminal Justice Policy ReviewSmith and Petrocelli

research-article2018

Smith and Petrocelli 1187

followed several years later with more guns, less crime just in time for the election of

a conservative president to the White House and a renewed focus on security follow-

ing the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Almost immediately after the publication of Lott’s

findings that concealed carry laws reduce violent crime, Black and Nagin (1998)

responded that the Lott and Mustard findings were highly sensitive to the inclusion of

small counties (especially those with no reported violent crimes) and the State of

Florida in the models, and once the data were re-analyzed to cure these defects, the

time-series models showed no impact of concealed carry laws on any of the analyzed

offenses—homicides, rapes, robberies, and assaults.

So began a 10-year academic dispute characterized by volleys and countervolleys

by researchers on both sides of the argument (Ayres & Donohue, 2003a, 2003b; Ayres

& Donohue, 2009; Donohue, 2003; Kovandzic & Marvell, 2003; Moody & Marvel,

2008, 2009). All the while, concealed carry laws proliferated as state legislatures grew

increasingly more conservative in the early 2000s and individual legislators cherry-

picked the research findings to support their political positions. Today, every state and

the District of Columbia permits concealed carry, and 12 states allow for the carrying

of a concealed weapon without any state-issued permit whatsoever (Giffords Law

Center to Prevent Gun Violence, n.d.). In the midst of the debate, the National Research

Council conducted a meta-analysis of the extant research findings and concluded that

it was not possible to draw a causal inference in either direction on the impact of con-

cealed carry laws on crime rates (National Research Council, 2004).

Against this national backdrop, the Arizona legislature passed Senate Bill 1108 (SB

1108) in 2010, which eliminated the requirement for a state-issued permit to carry a

concealed weapon. Prior to the passage of SB 1108, Arizona permitted the lawful car-

rying of a concealed weapon only upon the issuance of a concealed carry permit by the

Department of Public Safety, passage of a criminal background check, and completion

of a state-approved gun safety training course (A.R.S. §13-3112). At the time, only

two other states permitted the unlicensed carrying of a concealed weapon by anyone

not otherwise disqualified under state or federal law. As noted above, the list of states

that allow unlicensed concealed carry has now expanded to 12, including Arizona.

Despite the development of an extensive literature on the impact of concealed carry

laws on crime, very little research has reported on the effects of eliminating altogether

the requirement that persons obtain a state-issued permit to lawfully carry a concealed

weapon. Since 2010, the number of states that have abolished the requirement for

concealed carry permits has grown fivefold. This change in the policy landscape

remains fertile ground for research as other states are likely to follow suit.

This article evaluates the impact of AZ SB 1108 on crime in Tucson, Arizona. It

contributes to the ongoing debate over concealed carry laws and crime in at least two

ways. First, little research has been reported on the impact of eliminating licensing

requirements for concealed carry, and yet that is the “next frontier” in the policy-

making arena for gun rights advocates. By examining how the abolition of state licen-

sure requirements for carrying a concealed handgun has affected crime in Arizona’s

second largest city, this article helps inform the policy-making process in Arizona and

other states, which may be considering similar legislation. For example, the North