Taming the Super-Wicked Problem of Waterfront Hazard Mitigation Planning: The Role of Municipal Communication Strategies

• Author: Sarah J. Adams-Schoen
• Pages: 123-141

123

Chapter 6

Taming the Super-Wicked

Problem of Waterfront

Hazard Mitigation Planning:

The Role of Municipal

Communication Strategies

Sarah J. Adams-Schoen

[T]he policy process, and government in general, is rife with information, and

this provides a critica l but oft en overlooked dyn amic in politics.1

In the Adaptation Report of the Fif th Assessment Report (AR5), the Inter-

governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identies oods in urban

riverine and coastal areas as among the key climate-related risks for Nort h

America.2 Not surprisingly for residents of coastal a nd riverine communities

devastated by recent extreme weather events, the Adaptation Report ack nowl-

edges that risks related to sea-level rise, increased frequency and duration

of extreme precipitation events, and increasingly intense coastal storms are

not only future risks, but are current risks that are already manifesting in

property and infra structure da mage, ecosystem and social system disrup-

tion, public health impacts, and water qua lity impairment.3 e Adaptation

Report identies the current risk level for North America n coastal cities as

“medium” and projects that, with a 2° Centigrade (C) increase in global

average temperatures over pre-industrial levels, coastal urban areas wil l have

to implement “high adaptation” just to maintain the current risk level of

1. B D. J  F R. B, T P  A: H G

P P 2 (2005).

2. I P  C C, C C 2014: I, A,

 V 23 (2014) [hereinafter 2014 IPCC A R].

3. Id. at 6.

Author’s Note: e author would like to thank Brian Walsh (Touro Law 2016) for his

assistance with this chapter.

124 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change Law & Policy

medium.4 With a 4°C increase, even high adaptation is projected to have

little ecacy—indeed, the IPCC reports that under a 4°C pathway North

American coastal cities will face high risk levels even if they implement high

adaptation.5 Given that staying within a 2°C pathway appears unlikely,6 poli-

cymakers should heed t he IPCC ’s projections by implementing waterfront

development policies consistent w ith increasing ly severe ood risks in both

current and expanded ood zones.7

Notwithstanding the magnitude of present and future risks to coastal and

riverine communities, however, waterfront development policies have shifted

only incrementally. e result has been the continued siting of residential

communities a nd critica l infrastructu re in vulnerable waterfront areas and

the expansion and entrenchment of policies, behaviors, and preferences that,

at best, fail to mitigate risk and, at worst, heighten risk. Even communities

that have otherwise undert aken robust climate change mitigation and adap-

tation planning continue to base waterfront development policies on irra-

tionally d iscounted risk projections and embrace communication strategies

that obfuscate t he risk and ultimately undermine the communities’ ability

to adequately respond to the risk s. e literature on “wicked” and “super-

wicked” policy problems suggests that, in the current context of heightened

risk aversion following a major disaster like Hurricanes Sandy8 or Katrina,

municipal governments in the aected areas have a n opportunit y to trans-

form waterfront development policies consistent with scientic evidence on

climate related risks. Shifting waterfront development policies toward resil-

ience likely begins with ocial communications that accurately portray risk,

including waterfront and hazard mitigation plans, ood risk maps, and com-

prehensive planning processes, which can facilitate changes in zoning and

building codes and private market behavior consistent w ith near- and long-

term risks.

4. Id. at 23.

5. e 2014 IPCC Adaptation Report characterizes the projected risk under a 4°C increase, even with

high adaptation, to be approximately halfway between “medium” and “very high.” Id.

6. See Veerabhadran Ramanathan & Yan Feng, On Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference With

the Climate System: Formidable Challenges Ahead, 105 P. N’ A. S. 14245, 14245 (2008)

(estimating global warming of 2.4°C even if greenhouse gas concentrations held to 2005 levels).

7. roughout this chapter, the word “policy” denotes governmental strategies in response to a problem,

including communications, plans, and rules, both informal and formal.

8. is chapter refers to Sandy as a “hurricane” because, “although Sandy made landfall [near Brigantine,

New Jersey] as an extratropical low, its strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge had been felt onshore

for many hours while Sandy was still a hurricane.” E S. B  ., T C R:

H S (AL182012) 22-29 O 2012 4 n.6 (National Hurricane Center Feb. 12,

2013).