Flexible Conservationin Uncertain Times
| Author | Jessica Owley & David Takacs |
| Pages | 65-104 |
65
Chapter 4
Flexible Conser vation
in Uncertain Times
Jessica Owley & David Takacs
We know, beyond question, that the climate is warming: the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) labels the evi-
dence as “unequivocal.”1 Climate change will impact all human
communities. It w ill also impact nonhuman communities. According to
the IPCC:
• A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased
extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the
21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors,
such as habitat modication, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive
species (high condence).
• Extinction risk is increased u nder all . .. scenarios,2 with risk increas-
ing with both magnitude and rate of climate change. Many species will
be unable to track suitable climates under mid-and high-range rates of
climate change ... during t he 21st century (medium condence).
• Lower rates of change .. . will pose fewer problems.... Some species
will adapt to new climates. ose that cannot adapt su ciently fast
will decrea se in abunda nce or go extinct in part or a ll of their ranges.
Management actions, such as maintenance of genetic diversity, assisted
species migration and dispersal, manipulation of disturbance regimes
(e.g., res, oods), and reduction of other stressors, can reduce, but not
1. I P C C, C C 2013: T P S
B, 4 (2014) [hereinafter 2013 IPCC P S R].
2. e IPCC provides high and low estimates for the amount of greenhouse gases we will allow to be
emitted. Obviously, the higher the amount, the worse the eects of climate change, and the more
severe the impacts on species.
Authors’ Note: e authors would like to thank Stephen Miller and Robin Craig for their
careful editing and dedication to this project. Valuable research assistance was provided by
Mike Enright and Meron Amare. Professors Owley and Takacs are particularly indebted
to their excellent co-authors.
66 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change Law & Policy
eliminate, risks of impacts to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems due
to climate change, as well as increase the inherent capacit y of ecosys-
tems and their species to adapt to a changing climate (high condence).3
Climate change is already aecting biodiversity and ecosystems, shrinking
or shifting species ranges, and leading to asynchronicities between predator
and prey or plant and pollinator relationships.4 Such eects are unsurprising
because most climatic impacts result in signicant changes to the landscape.
For example, we will see increased droughts and other natural disasters.5
Additionally, the IPCC predicts decreasing snow cover6 and rising sea levels7
with “very high condence.” Indeed, sea level rise is expected to proceed at
an unprecedented rate because of the contributing eects from the increased
ocean warming causing thermal expansion and the loss of glaciers and ice
sheets; ocean warming alone will result in major disruptions in heat-sensitive
coral reefs and Arct ic ecosystems.8
Climate change will thus alter the composition of our landscapes and the
natural communities that comprise them. While it is easy to get wrapped up
in the predicted dire consequences of climate cha nge, the reality is that la nd-
scape cha nges and species shifts are already occurring on every continent.9
For example, IPCC Working Group II’s Summa ry for Policyma kers notes
that “[m]any terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geo-
graphic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and spe-
cies interactions in response to ongoing climate change (high condence),”10
and “[s]ome unique and t hreatened systems, including ecosystems and cul-
tures, are already at risk from climate change (high condence).”11 e evi-
dence of already-occurring climate change impacts is strongest for what the
3. I P C C, C C 2014: I, A,
V 14-15 (2014) [hereinafter 2014 IPCC A R].
4. See, e.g., Suzanne Goldenberg, Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Melt Forces ousands of Walruses Ashore in Alaska,
G, Aug. 27, 2015; Nicholas St. Fleur, Climate Change Is Shrinking Where Bumblebees Range,
Research Finds, N.Y. T, July 9, 2015; Press Association, UK Acorn Crop “Being Hit by Climate
Change,” G, Apr. 17, 2015; Sue Meyer, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service: Polar Bear Unlikely to
Survive a Warming Climate, N LLP E S L. P’ (July 7, 2015), http://
www.endangeredspec ieslawandpol icy.com/2015/07/ar ticles/sh- wildlife-ser vice/u-s- sh-wildlife-
service-polar-bear-unlikely-t o-survive-a-warming-climate/?utm _source=Nossaman+LLP+-+Endang
ered+Species+Law+and+Policy&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=e871 7dfc32-RSS_EMAIL_
CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_f2072431ce-e8717dfc32-70691469.
5. 2013 IPCC P S R, supra note 1, at 7, 12 (Table SPM.1) (with medium condence).
6. Id. at 9.
7. Id. at 11.
8. See id. at 25; 2014 IPCC A R, supra note 3, at 12.
9. 2014 IPCC A R, supra note 3, at 4.
10. Id.
11. Id. at 12, Assessment Box SPM.1.
Flexible Conservation in Uncertain Times 67
IPCC terms “natural” systems (as opposed to human systems),12 meaning
that we can already see changes in species distributions, habitat degradation,
and loss of ecosystem functions. e IPCC acknowledges that we risk losing
terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems, leading to a loss of the “goods,
functions, and services” those ecosystems provide.13
e quotations with which this chapter begins emphasize that we stand to
lose a considerable number of the species with which we share the planet. As
governments promulgate more and more laws to protect biodiversity, there
is a simultaneous cataclysm of species extinctions, with rates of decimation
between 1,000-10,000 times the “normal” (i.e., without human interference)
level.14 e number of wild animals has been halved in the last 40 yea rs.15
One in three amphibian species, one in four mammal species, and one in
eight birds face a high risk of extinction.16 e situation will probably get
worse, because the human population is expected to grow from 7 to 9 billion
by 2050, and likely to 11 billion by 2100.17
us, we nd ourselves in t he midst of a n extinction crisis, with some
experts calling our age the “Anthropocene” era in recognition of the fact
that huma ns dominate and degrade the planet’s life cycles and processes.18
As we lose biodiversity and convert more of the planet’s land to human uses,
we undercut our own life support systems. As our demands on the pla net
are growing, we are destroying the Earth ’s ecological systems that support
human life. According to a recent estimate, ecos ystem services provide
humans with US$125-145 trillion of “free” ser vices each yea r.19 We ignore
this source of human prosperity at our own peril: notably, between 1997 and
2001, humans lost US$4.3-$20.2 trillion per year as a result of land degra-
12. Id. at 4.
13. Id. at 13, n.viii.
14. I U C N (IUCN), S E—T
F, https://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/species_extinction_05_2007.pdf (last visited Sept. 3,
2015).
15. Damian Carrington, Earth Has Lost Half Its Wildlife in the Last 40 Years, Says WWF, G, Sept.
30, 2014.
16. IUCN, supra note 14.
17. Damian Carrington, World Population to Hit 11bn in 2100—With 70% Chance of Continuous Rise,
G, Sept. 18, 2014.
18. Paul Crutzen & Eugene F. Stoermer, e Anthropocene, G C N. 41 (2000). For
a review of human domination, see the opening paragraph of Tim Caro et al., Conservation in the
Anthropocene, 26 C B 185, 185 (2011). In 2016, the International Commission
on Stratigraphy’s Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy may decide to designate a new geologic
era bearing the name “Anthropocene.” S Q S, W
G “A,” http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/
(last updated May 5, 2015).
19. Robert Costanza et al., Changes in the Global Value of Ecosystem Services, 26 G E. C
152, 156 tbl. 3 (2014).
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