'Surprise' governance.

• Author: Horton, Robert B.
• Position: Threats and opportunities for businesses - Chairman's Agenda: Governing for Shareholder Prosperity

For perhaps a decade now, business has been talking about global marketing, global finance, global operations, global strategies, and even global managers in a changing world. I have no quarrel with the word "global." My argument is with the word "changing." We are in a world of surprise. As French poet Paul Valery said: "The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be."

Faced with the unpredictability of almost every aspect of business in today's chaotic world, the average corporate leader might be forgiven an erosion of will, if not a failure of nerve. But there is no substitute for success. Whatever happens, however buffeted by surprise, a company must respond effectively to every event. It is up to the company's leaders to see that it does.

Currency fluctuations, trade statistics, combined inflation and recession (not to mention wars and rumors of wars) all provide object lessons about the interconnections among the great business regions of the world. Only yesterday, it seems, in the modern world's economic powerhouse - the triad of Europe, America, and Japan - every traditional businessman was mumbling to himself that the world had gone crazy. And why not? The new breed of global manager was running rings around traditionalists.

But a funny thing happened on the way to tomorrow. The nontraditional global manager is suddenly looking over his shoulder, too. An even newer breed of manager is turning up. And these new stylists may make monkeys out of last year's lords of the business jungle.

To explain what has happened, perhaps a little potted business history is in order, starting with the United States, where many managerial revolutions begin.

The traditional American businessman was primarily a producer, a product innovator. Leadership in his company consisted of creating a management able to cope with competitors who all played by the same rules. U.S. laws and regulations governed the game. Moreover, it was an American game. And since the gigantic U.S. economy was growing, it was not a zero-sum game. The competition was fierce but knowable. If you played your cards right, you could win a hand.

The European always knew that the deck was full of jokers. He knew he could trust no one - not his government and certainly not his local competitors. He did not subscribe to the idea that a rising tide lifts all boats. Too often, he saw an ebb tide. Cartels were a beloved European business strategy. The fact that they...