J. Am. Physicians & Surgeons: The Breast Cancer Epidemic: Modeling and Forecasts Based on Abortion and Other Risk Factors.

• Author: Carroll, Patrick S.
• Position: Reprint

Using national cancer registration data for female breast cancer incidence in eight European countries--England & Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Irish Republic, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Finland, and Denmark--for which there is also comprehensive data on abortion incidence, trends are examined and future trends predicted. Seven reproductive risk factors are considered as possible explanatory variables. Induced abortion is found to be the best predictor, and fertility is also a useful predictor. Forecasts are made using a linear regression model with these explanatory variables. Previous forecasts using the same model and incidence data for years through 1997 for England & Wales are compared in an Appendix with numbers of cancers...