Sentence Length and Recidivism

• Published date: 01 August 2018
• Author: Sara Wakefield
• Date: 01 August 2018
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12390

POLICY ESSAY

PRISON LENGTH OF STAY AND

RECIDIVISM

Sentence Length and Recidivism

Evidence and the Challenges of Criminal Justice Reform

in the Carceral State

Sara Wakeeld

Rutgers University, Newark

William Rhodes, Gerald Gaes, Ryan Kling, and Christopher Cutler (2018, this

issue) provide a compelling and rigorous analysis of the relationship between

sentence length and recidivism. Exploiting federal sentencing guidelines and,

importantly, the systematic disconnect between the guidelines and recidivism risk, Rhodes

et al. find that sentence length in the federal system could be reduced by 7.5 months with

little impact on recidivism. Furthermore, they find no evidence of treatment heterogeneity

in these effects and restrict their analysis to those convicted of more serious felonies and

misdemeanors in the federal system. The policy implications of this study by Rhodes et al.

are clear and compelling. By correctly pointing out that across-the-board reductions in

sentence length can reduce the federal prison population to a much larger degree than any

diversion policy, they show that such a reduction could allowthe U.S. Bureau of Prisons to

close facilities as a result.

In this essay,I respond to the Rhodes et al. (2018) article on several grounds. I first briefly

describe the findings of the article, chiefly focusing on the use of a plausible comparison

to estimate the effect of sentence length on recidivism. Too much of our research on the

effects of incarceration comprises implausible comparisons, unrealistic counterfactuals, and

the like; in this study, the federal sentencing guidelines are used to great effect to overcome

these problems. I next engage the policy implications of the proposed research. In brief,

I had mixed reactions to the feasibility of an across-the-board sentence length reduction.

Although any policy that results in prison closure is to be pursued, I also am less convinced

Direct correspondence to Sara Wakefield, School of Criminal Justice, Center for Law and Justice, Rutgers

University, 579C Rutgers-Newark, 123 Washington Street, Newark, NJ 07102-3094 (e-mail:

sara.wakefield@rutgers.edu).

DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12390 C2018 American Society of Criminology 771

Criminology & Public Policy rVolume 17 rIssue 3