The Role of Time in Post-Normal Knowledge Creation and Decision-Making in Public Administration

• Published date: 01 November 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00953997231198846
• Author: Samuel R. Baty,Sharon Mastracci
• Date: 01 November 2023
• Subject Matter: Perspectives

https://doi.org/10.1177/00953997231198846

Administration & Society

2023, Vol. 55(10) 1932 –1951

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/00953997231198846

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Perspectives

The Role of Time in

Post-Normal Knowledge

Creation and

Decision-Making in

Public Administration

Samuel R. Baty1

and Sharon Mastracci2

Abstract

Scholars developing the concept of post-normal science have focused on

high stakes and uncertainty to illustrate scientific inquiry and decision-making

under post-normal conditions. While uncertainty and decision stakes are

often challenges in any decision-making process, we argue that they are not

the key factors that warrant the use of a post-normal approach, in which

facts are ambiguous, values are in dispute, and stakes are high. In this paper,

we center the role of time in the definition of post-normal science and offer

a model of decision-making that incorporates uncertainty and high stakes

within an overarching context of urgency. We then present three cases of

decision-making with varying time horizons to illustrate the significance of

time: The period leading up to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the

U.S. development of the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project, and

U.S. space exploration in the 1960s, culminating in the Apollo 11 Moon

landing. Elaborating on the role of time in post-normal science is crucial to

public administration because our field routinely involves decision making

1Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los

Alamos, NM, USA

2Center for Public Administration and Policy, Virginia Tech, USA

Corresponding Author:

Samuel R. Baty, Analytics, Intelligence, and Technology Division, Los Alamos National

Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545-1663, USA.

Email: samuel.baty@utah.edu

1198846AAS0010.1177/00953997231198846Administration & SocietyBaty and Mastracci

research-article2023

Baty and Mastracci 1933

amidst ambiguous facts, disputed values, high stakes, and urgency. As the

three illustrative cases further show, administrators on the ground during

the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Manhattan Project, and

space exploration also included extended peer communities.

Keywords

post-normal science, bounded rationality, public administration, satisficing

The purpose of this paper is to elaborate upon the crucial role of time in orga-

nizational decision making when engaging in “post-normal science.” One

defining aspect of the post-normal approach is the inclusion of an extended

peer community. To highlight the circumstances triggering the inclusion of an

extended peer community, we underscore the importance of time urgency

and decision makers’ perceptions of time. To present the concept of post-

normal science, we first revisit the concept of normal science and the assump-

tions underpinning rational comprehensive decision-making. We then argue

that Simon’s theory of bounded rationality better explains real-world deci-

sion-making than does the rational-comprehensive model because the former

emphasizes time in a way that the latter does not. Simon implies time scarcity

in his theory of bounded rationality, and Tversky and Kahneman explicitly

incorporate time in their proposal of System 1 and 2 thinking. Third, we pres-

ent an expansion of post-normal science that makes explicit how time urgency

shapes decision-making in organizations. We further argue that decision-

making in public administration is better characterized by a post-normal pro-

cess due to its applied nature, the roles of time and uncertainty, and the ability

of post-normal science to comprehend wicked policy problems (Roberts &

Wernstedt, 2018). Understanding the concept of post-normal science matters

to public administration because knowledge production in our field routinely

involves ambiguous facts, disputed values, high stakes, and time urgency

(Riccucci, 2010). Riccucci introduced post-normal science to the public

administration community, and we expand upon it in this paper. Our empha-

sis on the role of time is also consistent with Roberts and Wernstedt (2018)

who argue that decision-making in public administration research and prac-

tice is better served by reviving and emphasizing the role of Herbert Simon’s

decision theory. We end with an illustration of three cases of bounded ratio-

nality in three high-stakes decision contexts: The period prior to the 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. development of the atomic bomb dur-

ing the Manhattan Project, and U.S. space exploration in the 1960s.