Preparing for Tomorrow: A Case Study of Workforce Planning in North Carolina Municipal Governments

• Author: Willow S. Jacobson
• Date: 01 December 2010
• DOI: 10.1177/009102601003900404
• Published date: 01 December 2010
• Subject Matter: Article

Preparing for Tomorrow:
A Case Study of
Workforce Planning in
North Carolina Municipal
Governments*
By Willow S. Jacobson, PhD
Local governments are poised for a workforce crisis. Many will be faced with the
impact of a mass exodus of baby boomers from their ranks at the same time the
skills and knowledge required to continue to provide quality services increases.
Governments will compete with private and non-profit organizations, as well as
with each other, for talented workers. However, this crisis is likely to be felt by
governments first because of their older employee base and high demand for
knowledge workers. Individuals with needed skills and knowledge will become
harder to recruit and retain, especially if governments are not clear about the skills
they seek. Workforce planning can help governments act and perform strategically
in the face of increasingly complex governmental demands made even more
challenging by this impending human capital crisis. The 2002 International
Personnel Management Association report, Workforce Planning Resource Guide
for Public Sector Human Resource Professionals, found that “Workforce planning
is the most critical human resource management challenge in the public sector
today.” This paper examines the state of workforce planning in North Carolina
municipalities. Survey data from medium and large size municipalities in North
Carolina with populations over 15,000 is analyzed to determine the current state of
their workforce planning efforts. An overview of current practices, identified
needs, pressing concerns, and primary barriers to implementation and success
are presented.
The impending exodus of baby boomers from the nation’s workforce, coupled
with the increasing competencies and skills required of public-sector employ-
ees to provide quality services, sets the stage for a key challenge that govern-
ments will face in the coming years. They will compete with private and nonprofit
organizations, as well as one another, for talented workers.
In short, the nation is poised for a workforce crisis, and governments are likely to
feel the crisis first because of their high proportion of older employees and their high
* A more limited version of this article appears as Jacobson, Willow, “Who Will Be There to Serve?
Workforce Planning”: Popular Government. 27(2)(Winter 2007). Adapted with permission.
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demand for knowledge workers. People with the required skills and knowledge will
become harder to recruit and retain, especially if governments are not clear about the
skills that they seek. Workforce planning can help governments perform strategically in
the face of increasingly complex governmental demands made even more challenging
by the impending changes in and demands for human capital.
Governments must have the resources to achieve the goals and objectives
outlined in their strategic plans. Moreover, simply continuing basic service provision
requires resource planning that incorporates and addresses changing demographic
and social demands. Techniques such as performance budgeting help governments
plan for and track the level at which they are accomplishing their goals.1 Just as
organizations need to determine if the appropriate financial and capital components
are in place for achieving organizational objectives, they need to consider whether the
appropriate human capital is in place. Identifying a funding source for a position is not
enough. Workforce planning enables local governments to determine their need for
human resources to meet their objectives, and the availability of those resources.
“Workforce planning” is a process designed to ensure that an organization
prepares for its present and future needs by having the right people in the right places
at the right times. This article examines the importance of workforce planning for
governments. It addresses how national demographic trends are creating a workforce
crisis and highlights the particular challenges that this crisis will create in the public
sector. Further, the article discusses national workforce-planning trends and describes
practices of North Carolina local governments. Survey data from medium and large size
municipalities in North Carolina with populations over 15,000 (n=50) is analyzed to
determine the current state of their workforce planning efforts. An overview of current
practices, identified needs, pressing concerns, and primary barriers to implementation
and success are presented.
Importance of Workforce Planning
Strategic planning at the local level is becoming more common. A recent study of
medium- and large-sized North Carolina municipalities found that 100 percent of
respondents were conducting strategic planning in some form.2,3 Commonly these
plans involve the creation of an organizational or governmental mission statement,
identification of core values, and specification of organizational goals by the
organization’s stakeholders.4 To accomplish these goals and directions, governments
must properly align their financial and human resources.5 Workforce planning creates a
systematic assessment of the content and composition of a government’s workforce to
determine what actions the government needs to take to respond to current and
future demands to achieve organizational goals and objectives,6 also discussed as
Human Resource Planning (HRP).7 As will be discussed later, through this process
organizations work to ensure that their staffs are in the right place and have the right
skills to do their jobs, core to this concern are issues of retention, recruitment, analysis
and training. Human Resource departments are becoming more strategic players
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within governments, as part of this movement planning activities are crucial to
enhancing the strategic focus of both the department and the entire organization.8,9
In much the same way that financial issues are not the sole responsibility of the
finance office, workforce planning is not the lone responsibility of the human resource
department. Human resource staffs are key players in supporting and assisting the
development of a workforce plan, but the ownership of workforce planning belongs to
all managers, top administrators, and governing boards.10
Why Should We Care About Workforce Planning?
Workforce planning is important because, simply put, the numbers do not lie. The
large number of aging baby boomers in the workforce considered in relation to the
much smaller number of younger workers available to replace them sets the stage for a
crisis.11 A recent Harvard Business Review article notes, “The most dramatic shortage
of workers will hit the age group associated with leadership and key customer-facing
positions.”12 Many governments expect retirements of 50 percent or more among their
Figure 1: Percentage Change in Population by Age Group, 2000–2010
(Estimated)
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 75-79
AGE
Source: From Mary B. Young, The Aging-and-Retiring Government Workforce: How Serious Is the
Challenge? What Are Jurisdictions Doing about It? 31. Report sponsored by CPS Human
Resource Serv. (Burlington, Mass.: Ctr. for Org. Research/A Div. of Linkage, Inc., 2003), available
at www.cps.ca.gov/AboutUs/documents/CPS_AgeBubble_FullReport.pdf (last visited Oct. 31,
2006). Reprinted by permission.
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senior managers in the next 5–7 years.13 Turnover without planning can lead to
increased costs, lack of continuity, and immediate negative effects on organizations.
Given the current demographics of the national workforce, the potential for
turnover is great. Baby boomers (people born between 1946 and 1964) now make up
45 percent of the workforce, and “matures” (people born before 1946), 10 percent. The
proportion of older workers (defined as those fifty-five years old and up) is projected
to increase an average of 4 percent per year through 2015.14 The rapid increase of
people in the workforce who are ages 45–69 has been referred to as the “age bubble”
(see Figure 1).15 As the population ages, employers will have to determine how best to
replace the growing number of retiring workers from a much smaller pool of rising
workers.
High Stakes and Pressing Demands for the
Public Sector
Stakeholders at all levels of local government may find it more difficult to lead and
govern their communities and serve their citizens as they face the added challenge of
large retirement numbers in the next decade.16 The demographic transitions that are
occurring nationwide pose particular challenges for the public sector. The average age
of public workers is higher; the levels of specialization of knowledge, skills, and training
are greater; and access to available resources, such as training funds, recruitment
bonuses, and financial incentives, often is more constrained.
Regarding relative ages, on average, 46.3 percent of government workers are
forty-five year years old or older, whereas in the private sector, just 31.2 percent fall in
this age range.17 Federal, state, and local governments will face a great challenge in the
next decade as they strive to replace these retiring workers.
The percentage of older workers in the government workforce increased more
than the percentage of older workers in the private sector did between 1994 and 2001.
Although the local government numbers are slightly less...