Policing in an Omnicultural Environment: Population Heterogeneity and Terrorism Prevention

• Author: William V. Pelfrey, Jr
• Published date: 01 August 2014
• Date: 01 August 2014
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12103

POLICY ESSAY

CORRELATES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

IN THE UNITED STATES

Policing in an Omnicultural Environment

Population Heterogeneity and Terrorism Prevention

William V.Pelfrey, Jr.

Virginia Commonwealth University

LaFree and Bersani (2014, this issue) advance an important dialogue concerning the

prediction of future terrorist events. Enemies of the United States abound, and the

scope and boldness of terrorist organizations is trending upward. Major successes

have eluded terrorists in the United States since 2001; however, there have been many

thwarted attempts and some minor events. Domestic terrorism and self-radicalized perpe-

trators (such as the Tsarnaev brothers) represent continuing and perhaps growing threats.

Because terrorism is manifested as a local act, understanding local predictors has important

deterrence and prevention implications. This policy analysis extends the implications of

the extant research and considers the relevance for law enforcement agencies and decision

makers.

LaFree and Bersani (2014) make a compelling case for the importance of understanding

local variables as they predict terrorist events. Terrorism, much like crime, is often predicated

on locale (Behlendorf, LaFree, and Legault, 2012; Johnson and Braithwaite, 2009; LaFree,

Dugan, Xie, and Singh, 2012). Utilizing social disorganization theory (Shaw and McKay,

1942), which is a locus-specific theory, to predict locus-specific terrorism events, is both

novel and important. An unusual aspect of this researchis that it does not tr y to predict “who”

will become a terrorist or “why” they threaten, but it focuses on “where” events arelikely t o

occur by assessing the attributes of jurisdictions (counties). This policy essay seeks to build

on that thesis and extends the policy implications by focusing on the community attributes

that could either exacerbate or inoculate a jurisdiction’s potential for terror groups’ success.

LaFree and Bersani (2014) has several important implications that are accepted at face

value. Their major implication, which serves as the basis of this policy essay, is that terrorist

attacks can be predicted based on local demographic variables, and urban areas with greater

population heterogeneity and language diversity are at a higher risk for terrorism.

DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12103 C2014 American Society of Criminology 483

Criminology & Public Policy rVolume 13 rIssue 3