Police Responses to Violent Crime

• Author: Ashley Mancik,John P. Jarvis,Wendy C. Regoeczi
• Published date: 01 March 2017
• Date: 01 March 2017
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0734016816684198
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Police Responses to Violent

Crime: Reconsidering

the Mobilization of Law

John P. Jarvis

1

, Ashley Mancik

2

, and Wendy C. Regoeczi

3

Abstract

This work advances the relatively limited literature pertaining to police clearances of serious violent

crimes by comparing and contrasting the correlates of homicide clearance with clearance of non-

lethal violent crimes. Using 5 years of National Incident-Based Reporting System data from 2008 to

2012 and survival models, we analyze the impact of various victim and incident characteristics on

time to clearance outcomes for four offense types: homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and sexual

assault. Examining longitudinal trends of clearance rates reveals important differences across violent

crime types. Results of survival models also reveal substantial variation in the effects of victim and

incident characteristics on time to clearance across types of violent crime. These findings indicate

that results from previous studies on homicide case outcomes are not applicable to other types of

violent crimes, and police efforts to solve violent crimes differ markedly. As such, the theoretical

frameworks of mobilization of law and bounded rationality explanations for variation in police

responses to violent crime may be more viable than found in previous studies. However, future

research will need to consider these nuances to confirm if such dynamics extend to other forms of

criminal behavior.

Keywords

violence, arrests, mobilization of law, clearance

Over the past 15 years, a growing body of literature has examined the question of what factors

influence the likelihood that a homicide will be solved. The impetus for much of this work has been

the marked decline in homicide clearance rates from a high of about 92%in the early 1960s to a low

around 60%in the 1990s. However, surprisingly little attention has been given to the clearance

trends of crimes other than homicide. This work is an effort to fill this gap in the literature. In

particular, the long-term trends require examination to determine whether similar declines have

occurred in all crime types or only homicides. If clearance rates for all crimes have fallen over the

1

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Quantico, VA, USA

2

University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

3

Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH, USA

Corresponding Author:

John P. Jarvis, Federal Bureau of Investigation, 1 Range Road, Quantico, VA 22135, USA.

Email: john.jarvis@ic.fbi.gov

Criminal Justice Review

2017, Vol. 42(1) 5-25

ª2016 Georgia State University

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DOI: 10.1177/0734016816684198

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period examined, then the notion offered by Cassell and Fowles (1998) that police effectiveness in

solving crime in general has declined provides one possible explanation for such trends. However, if

the trends in crime clearances are not uniform over the last half century, perhaps there are much

more nuanced processes occurring that impact the ability of police to solve crimes as indicated by

the variable outcomes. In either case, the scholarship has primarily been devoted to homicide case

clearances, and little attention has been given to the other serious violent crimes.

The homicide clearance trend in Figure 1 shows that homicide has maintained the highest

clearance rates throughout the time period, with a high of 93%in 1961 to a current rate of 63%

in 2013. The aggravated assault clearance trend is most similar to the homicide clearance trend with

a high of 79%in 1961 compared to current clearance rates around 56%in 2013. In stark contrast to

the homicide and aggravated assault trends, the rape and robbery clearance trends are markedly

different, with historical highs in 1961 at about 73%and 42%, respectively, and rates in 2013 around

40%for rape and 29%for robbery. These differences alone substantiate the need for the ensuing

analysis presented here.

Perhaps more important for contemporary explanations of clearance rates is the observation that

clearance trends for other crimes have some similarities and differences from homicide. Consider, as

well, that the factors influencing such trends may or may not be similar for different types of violent

crimes. Such observations frame the research question examined herein. That is, do the factors that

have been found to affect homicide clearances exert similar or differing effects on the clearance rates

of nonlethal violent crimes (i.e., aggravated assault, robbery, and sexual assault)? In order to explore

this question, we first consider both the theoretical and empirical research that has been devoted to

explanations of homicide clearances. Subsequently, using the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s

National Incident-Based Reporting System (FBI NIBRS) data, we apply these notions to compare

models of homicide clearances with clearances for aggravated assault, robbery, and sexual assault.

Literature Review

While the emphasis in this article is not theory testing, the homicide clearance literature provides

some relevant theoretical frameworks that merit discussion. Specifically, two perspectives are

especially informative in our work.

1

The first is Donald Black’s ‘‘Behavior of Law’’ (1970, 1976,

0

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1960

1963

1966

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1975

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% Cleared

Year

Murder and Nonnegligent

Manslaughter

Forcible Rape

Robbery

Aggravated Assault

Figure 1. Uniform Crime reported offense clearance rates, 1960–2013.

6Criminal Justice Review 42(1)