Nuclear Power.

• Author: Van Doren, Peter

* "Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design," by Philip Eash-Gates, Magdalena M. Klemun, Goksin Kavlak, et al. Joule 11): 2348-2373 (November 2020).

In theory, low-cost nuclear power has been the answer to many energy and environmental policy questions ever since the 1950s. In practice, its costs have increased inexorably. Why?

This paper documents the history of nuclear power plant construction in the United States and the increase in costs. From 1967 through 1978, 107 were built. Rather than costs going down over that time from learning by doing, plant costs more than doubled with each doubling of cumulative U.S. capacity. The problem was declining "materials deployment productivity"--that is, the amount of concrete and steel that workers put together per unit of time.

About 30% of the productivity reduction stems from nuclear regulatory safety concerns. According to the authors:

While our analysis identifies the rebar density in reinforced concrete as the most influential variable for cost decrease, changes to the amount and composition of containment concrete are constrained by safety regulations, most notably the requirement for containment structures to withstand commercial aircraft impacts. New plant designs with underground (embedded) reactors could allow for thinner containment walls. However, these designs are still under development and pose the risk of high excavation costs in areas or at sites with low productivity. The sources of the other 70% of productivity slowdown were construction management and workflow issues...