Minority Threat Hypothesis and NYPD Stop and Frisk Policy

• Date: 01 June 2015
• DOI: 10.1177/0734016814564989
• Author: Joseph Ferrandino
• Published date: 01 June 2015
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Minority Threat Hypothesis and

NYPD Stop and Frisk Policy

Joseph Ferrandino

1

Abstract

This study analyzes New York Police Department (NYPD) stop and frisk policy using a minority

and Black threat framework. Using Blacks in White-dominated neighborhoods as the reference

group, this study compares four distinct police actions (frisks, searches, sanctions, and force used)

during 481,027 stops in 2012 in 297 geographic information system (GIS)-defined New York City

(NYC) neighborhoods. Descriptive analysis reveals the scope of isolation between Whites and

Blacks as well as the ratios of police action for each group within each neighborhood type, with

Blacks in White-dominatedand nondominated high White neighborhoods exceedingtheir population

proportion and crime propensity ratios across all four police actions, consistent with the Blackthreat

hypothesis. Logistic regression results provide further support for the application of Black threat

hypothesis to NYPD stops and frisks. When controlling for other factors, race/neighborhood fac-

tors remain significant though the odds ratios are far below the population proportion and crime

propensity benchmarks. These results are placed in the context of previous researc h findings and

the implications of minority threat hypothesis are discussed in light of the specific Black threat in

NYC. In the aggregate, the findings also include limited support for the ‘‘out of place’’and defended

neighborhood perspectives though much less for the criminogenic perspective relative to Blacks in

White-dominated and other race/neighborhood categories.

Keywords

NYPD, stop and frisk, minority threat hypothesis, GIS

Introduction

The stop and frisk policies of the New York Police Department (NYPD) have been one of the most

controversial and debated criminal justice topics in recent years as the NYPD made 4,628,936

stops and conducted 2,400,903 frisks between 2004 and 2012 (NYPD, n.d.). The policy has been

researched mainly through arguments of inequity based upon the racial disparities in stops and

frisks (Civilian Complaint Review Board, 2001; Gelman, Fagan, & Kiss, 2007; Floyd v. New York,

2013; Jones-Brown, Gill, & Trone, 2010; Center for Constitutional Rights, 2009; Office of the

1

Indiana University-Northwest, Gary, IN, USA

Corresponding Author:

Joseph Ferrandino, Indiana University-Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, IN 46408, USA.

Email: joferran@iun.edu

Criminal Justice Review

2015, Vol. 40(2) 209-229

ª2014 Georgia State University

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DOI: 10.1177/0734016814564989

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New York State Attorney General, 2013; Ridgeway, 2007; Spitzer, 1999). Largely, this body of

research has focused on the race of those stopped or on geographical units of analysis such as cen-

sus tracts or precincts. The interaction between the race of the offender and racial composition of

the neighborhood where the stop takes place has been noted but remains largely understudied.

This study adds to the stop and frisk literature through the first known application of minority

threat hypothesis with police actions during stops and frisks. More precisely, an NYC specific

Black threat theory is built to guide the analysis. Next, the GIS process utilized to integrate census,

stop and frisk, and other data into the creation of 297 distinct NYC neighborhoods, a feature that

further distinguishes this study from the previous literature, is discussed. A comprehensive

descriptive approach is then undertaken to create benchmarks of police action to inform of relative

differences for each category of offender race and neighborhood race structure, focusing specif-

ically on the stops of Blacks in White-dominated neighborhoods. The Black threat framework for

four police actions (frisks, sanctions, searches, and use of force) during stops is evaluated through

logistic regression modeling. The study concludes with a discussion of Black threat, defended

neighborhoods, criminogenic explanations, and the out of place hypothesis, adding to our growing

sociological understanding of the racial aspects of stops and frisks in the nation’s largest city.

Literature Review of the Racial/Ethnic Aspects of NYPD Stop

and Frisk Policy

Most research into NYPD stop and frisk policies focuses on the racial disparities in aggregate

stops and frisks relative to residential population representation at varying units of analysis. This

perspective endures and persists due to the historically poor relationship between the NYPD and

NYC’s communities of color (see Lardner & Reppetto, 2000; Solis, Portillos, & Brunson, 2009) in

conjunction with more recent crime control efforts focused on high minority neighborhoods (Bass,

2001). The first major report quantifying this racial disparity analyzed 175,000 stops between

January 1998 and March 1999. Blacks and Hispanics comprised 49.3%of the population at that

time yet accounted for 83.6%of stops; by contrast, Whites comprised 43.4%of the population but

only 12.9%of stops (Spitzer, 1999). While stops of minorities were most abundant in high minority

precincts, a disparate number of minority stops were observed in largely White precincts (defined as

greater than 50%White population). The report further determined that variability in precinct-level

crime rates alone did not account for the racial disparities in these stops (Spitzer, 1999).

A subsequent report focused on fully investigated citizen complaints resulting from a police stop

and/or frisk, finding that 51%of fully investigated complaints from January 1997 through March

1999 were filed by Black subjects while 24%were Latino and 11%were White (Civilian Complaint

Review Board, 2001). Of these complaints, physical force was alleged in 76%of stops involving

Latinos and 74%of stops involving Blacks compared to 48%of stops involving White suspects.

Moreover, a significantly higher percentage of Blacks were stopped by an officer brandishing a fire-

arm (29%) than Hispanic (13%) or White suspects (6%). Thus, racial disparities are important in the

context of police actions during a stop, not only the initial stop decision.

Gelman, Fagan, and Kiss (2007) also examined whether race-specific stop rates were a function

of race-specific arrest rates or precinct-level variability. The results confirmed the assertion in the

Spitzer (1999) report that significant racial disparity in stops were not explained by precinct-level

crime or prior year race-specific arrest rate variability. The authors concluded that less rigorous con-

stitutional standards were applied to stops of minorities, making these stops less efficient than those

of Whites do. Most pertinent to this study is the finding of ‘‘racially incongruent stops’’ or stops of

minorities in predominantly White precincts or Whites in predominantly minority precincts, each of

which is a sign of ‘‘race-based selection of citizens for crime interdiction.’’ Thus, including the stop

210 Criminal Justice Review 40(2)