Libya--the unbearable lightness of being, Africa.

• Author: Bajrektarevic, Anis H.

Four men leading one man bound One man whom the four men hound One man counted bound and led One man whom the four men dread (2) If the sunny "Arab spring" day is clouded in Tunisia by the incapability of domestic forces to turn the popular revolt into viable and badly needed sociopolitical reform, and if such a "Spring" in Egypt is shadowed by the military uniforms and old faces with new rhetorics that are effectively running the country (jointly with the USAID and IMF), than the spring skies over Libya are full of pelting rain, across tribal lines. The inability of (coalition of the willing dressed in) the NATO to bring about a fast and decisive result in the Libyan episode puts Russia and China into a very comfortable position--to recapture initiative and lead moral condemnations on the international scene. (In the bold demonstration of solidarity ordered by Beijing, the China's ambassador accredited to Libya was even walking every morning all the sites bombed in Tripoli in the night raids.) Nevertheless, in practical terms there was no real difference between the affirmative vote on the UN Security Council Resolution 1973 of France, the UK and the US, and the non-blocking abstention of Russia and China--both together were needed for the adoption of the resolution and the rapid intervention that came along. (To complete the puzzle, Brazil and India--contrary to their vocal anti-Western moralization--also casted abstentions, not negative votes, on the Resolution.)

The logics of you do not touch Syria (Russia) and you don't touch Sudan (China), in exchange for a free upper hand in Libya presents itself as a seductive guess to the possible grand bargaining of the P-5 behind closed doors (offering comfort to the question of discrepancy between the loudly declared and factually committed). Still, from this short time distance with a lack of conclusive information, it is a highly speculative hint. Admittedly, up to this writing there has been no Security Council resolution followed by concrete action to stop mass and repeated atrocities in either Sudan or Syria. An additional international legitimacy burden streams & rings: a slow and weak response on a side of the Libya-intervention eager coalition of the willing to the colossal humanitarian catastrophe in the East/Horn of Africa -an outbreak that was mounting since the early spring of 2011 (not to mention Bahrain and Yemen). (3)

Young generations of Europeans are taught in schools about a singular entity called the EU. However, as soon as serious security challenges emerge, the compounding parts of the true, historic Europe are resurfacing again. Formerly in Iraq (with the exception of France) and now with Libya; Central Europe is hesitant to act, Atlantic Europe is eager, Scandinavian Europe is absent, Eastern Europe is bandwagoning, and Russophonic Europe is opposing.

The 1986 Reagan-led Anglo-American bombing of Libya was a one-time punitive action. And then for decades nearly nothing happened, as if everybody was busily reading the Book of Laughter and Forgetting. (4) But, as the saying goes: "don't judge a book by its cover," at least not after 19 March 2011. This time, Libya has been given a different attachment: The considerable presence of China in Africa, successful circumventing pipeline deals between Russia and Germany (which will deprive the Eastern Europe from any transit-related bargaining premium, and will tacitly pose a joint Russo-German effective pressure on the Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine), and finally Tunisian and Egyptian, EU friendly regimes fall--all combined--must have triggered alarm bells across the Atlantic Europe.

The economically prosperous (the most developed African state, and a provider of solid jobs for many in the region, including Egyptians and Tunisians--over half a million of their guest-workers), but of socio-politically spent clan-favoritism regime, and jovial leader, Libya emerged as an easy target. As an advocate of and engine to pan-African solidarity and unity, Libya was also an appropriate target for the Atlantic Europe--to pass the simple message: neither Gaddafi (-led cross-African coalition) nor China (or Indian Navy) can silently fill the gap after the collapse of the SU and subsequent loss of American strategic interest for Africa.

Indeed, the current deployment is the largest Anglo-French military involvement in the Middle East since their joint occupation of Sinai and bombardment of Cairo of late 1956 (the so-called Mivtza Kadesh, tripartite surprise attack on Egypt following the tensions over a funding of the Aswan Dam and Nasser's nationalization of Suez). That time, the intervention has triggered the unthinkable Cold War' s precedence: By the joint blocking vote in the UN Security Council, the US and SU effectively forced Anglo-French troops to immediate withdrawal. It marked a humiliating (beginning of an) end of the Anglo-French colonial presence in the Middle East and Africa, an opening of stark rivalries between the Soviets and Americans to fill this gap, as well as the contemplation of leaders of newly liberated countries headed by Tito, Nehru, Nasser, Sukarno and Nkrumah to create a unified front of the Third way--Nonaligned movement.

This time in 2011, it seems that the military intervention after 5 months of uninterrupted air-raids was not bringing any decisive breakthrough. Therefore, diplomacy has been called for a help. The rebels (5) are getting recognized as the "Benghazi government" by ever more states. Still, this la fait accompli offers a very little comfort: not so long ago, South Vietnam existed, Katanga and DDR too, while Egyptians and Syrians lived together in the confederation. Taiwan, internationally recognized, was holding China' s seat in the UN Security Council.

The Gaddafi' s government was a totalitarian, but the post-Gaddafi government will be dysfunctional (like in other countries where NATO brokered a change in last 15 years). The post-Gaddafi Libya will be--unfortunately--a territory. It will be a mare space of the grave political, territorial, economic and social problems, energized by a growing and nearly self-perpetuated sectarian violence (and blood revenge).

To conclude with the Huntingtonian Clashes of Civilizations wisdom: when the predominantly Christian air-force is bombing a predominantly Muslim country for 4 consecutive months and keeps doing so all throughout the "Muslim Christmas"--a holy fasting month of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr, it surely neither will help to maintain secularism and introduce democratization (6) locally, nor will it assist the war against Islamist radicals regionally.

So, what were the strategic objectives of the Anglo-French-led coalition: (i) to reassert the...