Keeping Pace With the Evolution of Illicit Darknet Fentanyl Markets: Using a Mixed Methods Approach to Identify Trust Signals and Develop a Vendor Trustworthiness Index

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231159530
• Published date: 01 May 2023
• Date: 01 May 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862231159530

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2023, Vol. 39(2) 276 –297

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862231159530

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Article

Keeping Pace With the

Evolution of Illicit Darknet

Fentanyl Markets: Using a

Mixed Methods Approach

to Identify Trust Signals

and Develop a Vendor

Trustworthiness Index

Marie-Helen Maras1, Jana Arsovska1,

Adam Scott Wandt1, and Kenji Logie1

Abstract

Illicit darknet markets (DNMs) are highly uncertain and in a perpetual state of

flux. These markets thrive in a zero-trust, high-risk environment. However,

the trustworthiness of vendors plays a critical role in illicit transactions and the

sustainability of the illegal trade of goods and services on DNMs. Focusing on the

illicit fentanyl trade and applying signaling theory and embedded mixed methods

design, we examined different ways that trustworthiness is signaled by vendors on

darknet sites. Fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, in recent years, has been declared a public

health emergency in the United States due to its high potency and unprecedented

number of deaths associated with its use; however, the topic remains understudied

and requires urgent attention. There are few studies that have focused on fentanyl

trafficking on DNMs and no mixed method studies that have focused specifically

on trust signals in DNM fentanyl networks. In our research, first, we conducted a

focus group and in-depth interviews with criminal justice professionals to understand

the inner workings of darknet sites, fentanyl networks, and how trust is assessed.

Second, we scraped select darknet sites to collect and curate scraped data for later

examination of vendor trustworthiness on DNMs. Third, using signaling theory to

1City University of New York, USA

Corresponding Author:

Marie-Helen Maras, Associate Professor, Department of Security, Fire, and Emergency Management,

John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York, 524 W 59 St., New York,

NY 10019, USA.

Email: mmaras@jjay.cuny.edu

1159530CCJXXX10.1177/10439862231159530Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeMaras et al.

research-article2023

Maras et al. 277

understand how vendors signal trustworthiness on select darknet sites selling drugs,

including fentanyl, we applied both qualitative and quantitative content analysis of

DNM features, and language used in vendor profiles, listings, and product/vendor

reviews, to inform the development of a trustworthiness index. In this research, we

used software, such as Atlas.ti and Python, to analyze our data. The main purpose of

this article is to provide an in-depth description of the mixed methods approach we

used to inform the development of a vendor trustworthiness index, which we used

to examine trust between illicit fentanyl vendors and buyers. Our research can serve

as a guide for the development of DNM vendor trustworthiness index for future

research on other illegal markets.

Keywords

signaling theory, trust, darknet, fentanyl, mixed methods, embedded research design

Introduction

Synthetic opioids, particularly fentanyl, are a leading cause of opioid deaths in the

United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC,

2022), U.S. overdoses from opioids rose from 70,029 in 2020 (57,834 of these deaths

were linked to synthetic opioids) to 80,816 in 2021 (of which 71,238 were attributed

to synthetic opioids). The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA, 2021) identi-

fied “illicit fentanyl” as “primarily responsible for fueling the ongoing opioid crisis”

(p. 4). Synthetic opioids, like fentanyl and tramadol, are also cheaper to manufacture

and buy than other opioids (Miller, 2020). The costs of fentanyl and its high potency

are viewed as drivers for its increased use by traffickers, dealers, and even buyers. The

DEA further identified that drug traffickers and dealers mix illegal fentanyl with other

illicit drugs, like heroin and other illegal drugs. Buyers may wittingly or unwittingly

purchase fentanyl and/or other illicit drugs (opioids and non-opioid drugs) mixed with

fentanyl.

A factor that contributed to the mass distribution and illegal purchasing of synthetic

opioids, including fentanyl, was the availability of these illicit drugs on darknet mar-

ketplaces (DNMs; Miller, 2020). In violation of the U.S. Controlled Substances Act of

1970, drugs, including fentanyl, have been traded in DNMs, which have removed bar-

riers to entry into illicit drugs markets by providing criminals with the infrastructure,

personnel, resources, clientele, and products needed to sell drugs online (Maras, 2017).

These illegal drugs have been advertised, marketed, and sold via smartphone apps and

on bulletin boards, discussion forums, social media platforms, online marketplaces,

online classified advertisement sites, instant messaging platforms, and unencrypted,

encrypted, and proprietary communications platforms (e.g., Facebook Messenger,

WhatsApp, and PhantomSecure; see UNODC, 2021). Drug markets in general, and

those on the darknet specifically, are in a constant state of flux (UNODC, 2021, 2022),

where the type and variation of drugs, demand and supply for certain drugs, market