Impact Evaluation of a Parolee-Based Focused Deterrence Program on Community-Level Violence

• Date: 01 December 2019
• DOI: 10.1177/0887403418812999
• Author: Edmund F. McGarrell,Kyleigh Clark-Moorman,Jason Rydberg
• Published date: 01 December 2019
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403418812999

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2019, Vol. 30(9) 1408 –1430

© The Author(s) 2018

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0887403418812999

journals.sagepub.com/home/cjp

Article

Impact Evaluation of a

Parolee-Based Focused

Deterrence Program on

Community-Level Violence

Kyleigh Clark-Moorman1, Jason Rydberg1,

and Edmund F. McGarrell2

Abstract

We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (“pulling levers”)

intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford,

Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents

of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-

intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using

Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-

based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System

(NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic

control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions

in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6%

to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion

that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in

reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a

useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental

impact evaluations.

Keywords

focused deterrence, pulling levers intervention, quasi-experimental design, Bayesian

Structural Time Series (BSTS)

1University of Massachusetts Lowell, MA, USA

2Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA

Corresponding Author:

Jason Rydberg, School of Criminology and Justice Studies, Associate, Center for Program Evaluation,

University of Massachusetts Lowell, 113 Wilder St, Lowell, MA 01854, USA.

Email: Jason_Rydberg@uml.edu

812999CJPXXX10.1177/0887403418812999Criminal Justice Policy ReviewClark-Moorman et al.

research-article2018

Clark-Moorman et al. 1409

Introduction

Following historically high rates of firearm violence in the late 1980s and early 1990s,

focused deterrence-based strategies are an innovative response implemented by crimi-

nal justice agencies across the United States. Also known as “pulling levers,” these

strategies offer connections to social support and community resources while simulta-

neously communicating the severe consequences of continued offending behavior in a

non-threatening manner, delivering a multipronged message to encourage deterrence

for high-risk individuals. These strategies involve first identifying high-risk individu-

als, and using a method such as call-in sessions to communicate possible sanctions for

continued offending (e.g., enhanced surveillance or probation), and putting them in

direct contact with social service providers (e.g., drug treatment or counseling ser-

vices; Corsaro, Brunson, & McGarrell, 2013; Kennedy, 1997; Papachristos, Meares,

& Fagan, 2007). To be effective, focused deterrence strategies rely on research that

suggests firearm violence is highly concentrated within a subset of chronic offenders

and offending networks (Kennedy, Piehl, & Braga, 1996; Papachristos, Wildeman, &

Roberto, 2015), and that offenders are more likely to comply with deterrence-based

messages when they perceive them to be legitimate (Papachristos, Meares, & Fagan,

2012; Tyler, 1997). Celebrated implementations of focused deterrence strategies have

reported promising reductions in community-level firearm violence in Boston (Braga,

Kennedy, Waring, & Piehl, 2001; Kennedy et al., 1996) and Chicago (Papachristos

et al., 2007), and have inspired similar programs in Indianapolis (McGarrell, Chermak,

Wilson, & Corsaro, 2006) and New Orleans (Corsaro & Engel, 2015).

However, prior research and experience indicates that replicating promising practices

from one jurisdiction to another can be challenging. Variation in policy transfer such as

implementation breakdown (Wilson & Davis, 2006), lack of stakeholder buy-in or

understanding (Kennedy, 2011), or context-dependent mediation (Collins, 1992;

Shadish, Cook, & Campbell, 2002) can undermine the impact of strategies that have

produced significant impacts in other jurisdictions. For example, pulling levers strate-

gies that have been effective at reducing violence in Boston and Chicago cannot be

assumed to be effective elsewhere, as similar models have not been successful in

Pittsburgh, Newark, or Baltimore (Kennedy, 2011; Wilson & Chermak, 2011).

Evaluations of new focused deterrence implementations can enhance the external valid-

ity of knowledge claims concerning the impact of these interventions across a variety of

contexts, offender groups, and variations in program delivery (Shadish et al., 2002),

while also improving policy revision and replication by giving stakeholders in other

jurisdictions a framework with specific outcomes (Mears, 2017; Welsh & Harris, 2016).

This research evaluates the impact of a focused deterrence strategy targeting high-

risk parolees in Rockford, Illinois, known as the Rockford Area Violence Elimination

Network (RAVEN). Consistent with previous research observing focused deterrence

effects on aggregate firearm violence (e.g., Corsaro & Engel, 2015; Papachristos et al.,

2007), we utilize a quasi-experimental design to examine whether the implementation of

the program was associated with a decrease in community-level firearm violence.

Furthermore, we apply recent advances in Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS)