How Does Job Loss Affect Voting? Understanding Economic Voting Using Novel Data on COVID-19 Induced Individual-Level Unemployment Shocks

• Published date: 01 November 2021
• Author: Jennifer D. Wu,Gregory A. Huber
• Date: 01 November 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/1532673X211026831
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211026831

American Politics Research

2021, Vol. 49(6) 568 –576

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X211026831

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Article

Introduction

How do changes in individuals’ personal economic situa-

tions affect vote choice? There is an extensive body of

research in the social sciences on “economic voting,” which

broadly argues that economic conditions, either at the indi-

vidual- or macro-level, have a large effect on vote choice.

These effects may be larger than political preferences or ide-

ology. Overall, the general consensus is that voters hold the

incumbent government responsible for economic perfor-

mance, punishing incumbents when the economy is poor

(e.g., Grafstein, 2005; Healy & Malhotra, 2013; Lewis-Beck

& Paldam, 2000).

While there is agreement that “the economy matters,”

how much one’s personal economic experience affects vot-

ing, referred to as egotropic or “pocketbook” voting, is much

less clear (Kinder & Kiewiet, 1981). Margalit (2019) pro-

vides a thorough review of a number of behavioral responses

we might see, such as voting against the incumbent, voting

for more leftist (or rightwing) policy, or not voting at all.

Generally speaking, research in this area suggests that vot-

ers’ evaluations of the national economy are stronger predic-

tors of voting behavior than personal economic circumstances

(Alvarez & Nagler, 1998; Kiewiet, 1983; Kinder & Kiewiet,

1979). To get at individual-level experience, one promising

approach is to use survey data, which can potentially differ-

entiate between personal-level and macro-level experience.

However, these approaches are subject to concerns about

measurement error (see Kramer (1983) in particular).

There are three main concerns related to measurement

and identification in isolating the effect of changes in per-

sonal economic experiences on voting, which likely contrib-

ute to this ongoing debate. The first is theoretical, which is

that changes in individual experiences may affect individu-

al’s beliefs about both their personal well-being and macro-

economic performance. This means that “controlling for”

national economic perceptions may obscure the effect of per-

sonal economic experiences. Likewise, changes to the macro

economy may also affect beliefs about one’s own personal

standing. Without direct measurement of changes in personal

economic experiences, for example, changes in employment

status or income, it will be difficult to identify the origin of

changes in perceptions.

1026831APRXXX10.1177/1532673X211026831American Politics ResearchWu and Huber

research-article2021

1Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

Corresponding Author:

Jennifer D. Wu, Yale University, 115 Prospect Street, Rosenkranz Hall,

New Haven, CT 06520, USA

Email: jennifer.wu@yale.edu

How Does Job Loss Affect Voting?

Understanding Economic Voting Using

Novel Data on COVID-19 Induced

Individual-Level Unemployment Shocks

Jennifer D. Wu1 and Gregory A. Huber1

Abstract

Prior research on economic voting generally finds that national economic performance affects incumbent support. However,

the degree to which one’s personal economic situation shapes vote choice remains less clear. In this study, we use novel

survey data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to provide more credible evidence about the effect of changes in

personal economic experiences on intended vote choice. Our design uses an objective measure of change in personal

economic situation by asking respondents their employment status prior to the pandemic and at the time of the survey.

Given the widespread and abrupt way in which the pandemic induced unemployment, we argue that this design reduces

concerns about confounders that explain both vote choice and job loss. Our analysis demonstrates that individuals whose

personal economic conditions worsened during the pandemic were significantly less like to intend to vote for Trump in the

2020 election.

Keywords

economic voting, unemployment, vote choice, job loss