Hope Is Around the Corner: Determining the Effect of Neighborhood Revitalization on Crime Through an Evaluation of Houston HOPE

• Author: Meghan M. Mitchell,Kadee L. Crandall,Di Jia
• Published date: 01 April 2020
• Date: 01 April 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0887403419828037
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403419828037

Criminal Justice Policy Review

2020, Vol. 31(3) 356 –373

© The Author(s) 2019

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DOI: 10.1177/0887403419828037

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Article

Hope Is Around the Corner:

Determining the Effect of

Neighborhood Revitalization

on Crime Through an

Evaluation of Houston HOPE

Meghan M. Mitchell1, Kadee L. Crandall2, and Di Jia3

Abstract

Vacant lots can attract debris, are often covered with overgrown vegetation, and

at times, serve as hot spots for crime. Given the alignments associated with vacant

lots, cities often try to revitalize or restore vacant lots to usable parcels. However,

there is little research that examines the relationship between revitalization efforts

for vacant lots and crime. This study seeks to determine how Houston HOPE—a

revitalization project—affects crime trends within Houston, Texas. Data from

the Houston Police Department are used to analyze the progress in the HOPE

intervention on violent and property crime, and nuisance calls for service using

autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. We find that, for

some HOPE areas, violent and property crimes and nuisance calls for service

decreased, whereas, in other HOPE areas, those crimes and calls increased.

Our results provide mixed support for the HOPE intervention and the utility of

neighborhood revitalization efforts to influence criminal behavior.

Keywords

environmental criminology, neighborhood revitalization, vacant lots, ARIMA modeling,

environmental policy

1University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA

2Kutztown University of Pennsylvania, Kutztown, PA, USA

3Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO, USA

Corresponding Author:

Meghan M. Mitchell, Department of Criminal Justice, University of Central Florida, 12805 Pegasus Drive,

Orlando, FL 32816-2200, USA.

Email: mmitchell@ucf.edu

828037CJPXXX10.1177/0887403419828037Criminal Justice Policy ReviewMitchell et al.

research-article2019

Mitchell et al. 357

Limited employment opportunities and outmigration patterns frequently associate

with vacant lots and declining neighborhood conditions (National Vacant Properties

Campaign, 2005). These vacant lots are relatively common and make up approxi-

mately 15% of neighborhood lots nationally (Pagano & Bowman, 2000). Vacant lots

are a burden to city planners as they generate limited tax revenue (Goldstein, Jensen,

& Reiskin, 2001), decrease property values (Accordino & Johnson, 2000), and are

costly to maintain (Eastern Pennsylvania Organizing Project and the Temple University

Center for Public Policy, 2001).

Scholars have found that vacant lots are associated with an increase in property

and violent crime (Fron, 2013; R. W. Jones & Pridemore, 2016; Liggett, Loukaitou-

Sideris, & Iseki, 2001; Raleigh & Galster, 2015). Situating this relationship within

a larger theoretical and crime control context, vacant lots increase the opportunity

for criminal behavior (Cohen & Felson, 1979), and these lots may serve as physical

signs of incivility, which remind the public of disinvestment in their neighborhood.

Moreover, signs of disorder may decrease social cohesion and informal social con-

trol, resulting in an increase of the presence of crime and criminals (Wilson &

Kelling, 1982).

City planners are tasked with finding innovative ways to redevelop vacant lots into

temporary or long-standing uses that have a positive impact on the community and

decrease public safety risks (Németh & Langhorst, 2014). As a result, cities may opt

for a revitalization effort with hopes to turn a potentially disorganized and crime-rid-

den neighborhood into a safe and desirable neighborhood. Despite the growth of

empirical assessments on revitalization, limited evaluations exist specifically on the

effectiveness of neighborhood revitalization efforts on crime. Therefore, our research

determines whether Houston HOPE, a neighborhood revitalization project, decreases

violent and property crime incidents, along with nuisance calls for service. To address

the research objectives, longitudinal data from January 2005 through December 2013

from the Houston Police Department (HPD) are analyzed using autoregressive inte-

grated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.

Review of Literature

Some neighborhoods are continually evolving with numerous growth and develop-

ments; whereas, others are in a state of decline. Declining neighborhoods begin to lose

residents through outmigration (Galster, 1990), as once sought after residential “hot

spots” become desolate places, inevitably trending toward depreciation with dire need

of improvements (Hoover & Vernon, 1959). Graffiti, refuse, abandoned structures,

and vacant lots are visual reminders of neighborhoods deteriorating to ultimately

“dead space” (Coleman, 1982). These visual reminders are directly and indirectly

related to economic decline, job loss, decreases in quality of life, tax delinquency,

foreclosures, and development barriers (Goldstein et al., 2001; National Vacant

Properties Campaign, 2005). Approximately 15% of lots in U.S. cities are vacant or

filled with abandoned structures (Bowman & Pagano, 2004; see also Northam, 1971).

These vacant areas tend to be confined to specific neighborhoods (Accordino &