Growth of Lethal Violence in Brazil 2000–2017: A Space-Temporal Analysis of Homicides

• Author: Marcelo Justus,Vania Ceccato,Temidayo James Aransiola
• DOI: 10.1177/10439862211034343
• Published date: 01 February 2022
• Date: 01 February 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862211034343

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2022, Vol. 38(1) 34 –55

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862211034343

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Article

Growth of Lethal Violence

in Brazil 2000–2017: A

Space-Temporal Analysis

of Homicides

Temidayo James Aransiola1, Vania Ceccato1,

and Marcelo Justus2

Abstract

This study investigates the space-temporal growth of homicide rates in Brazil from

2000 to 2017 and identifies determinants of the country’s growth of homicide rates.

Data from the Brazilian Information System on Mortality and Censuses are used to

estimate growth models combined with spatial statistics and Geographical Information

Systems (GIS). Findings show evidence of change in the geographical distribution

of lethal violence over time, characterized by a steady increase in the North and

Northeast regions and a reduction in growth in the South and Southeast regions of

Brazil. Social disorganization factors namely deprivation, ethnic heterogeneity, and

urbanization are significant positive determinants of the growth of homicide rates.

The results show a reduction of the predictive strength of income inequality and an

increase in that of unemployment from the year 2010 to 2017. The theoretical and

policy implications of these results are discussed.

Keywords

lethal violence, spatial pattern, social disorganization, Global South

Introduction

Brazil has one of the highest homicide rates in the world and, according to Cerqueira

et al. (2019), a historically high rate was observed in the year 2017 (around 31.6

1KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

2University of Campinas, Brazil

Corresponding Author:

Temidayo James Aransiola, Department of Urban Planning and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of

Technology, Stockholm 114 28, Sweden.

Email: tjara@kth.se

1034343CCJXXX10.1177/10439862211034343Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeAransiola et al.

research-article2021

Aransiola et al. 35

homicides per 100.000 population). In the year 2016, this rate was around 30.3, which

was three times the world average; twice the average of countries in America; 30 times

the average of countries in Europe. This makes Brazil a relevant case study on lethal

violence in the international literature.

Apart from the expressively high rate of lethal violence in Brazil, empirical studies

have alerted concerning the changing growth pattern of this crime across Brazilian

regions over time (Ceccato & Ceccato, 2017; Andrade & Diniz, 2013; Justus et al.,

2018; Scorzafave et al., 2015; Soares Filho et al, 2020; Waiselfisz, 2011). For instance,

Scorzafave et al. (2015) found that crime rates are higher in urban areas but have been

increasing more in rural areas while Justus et al. (2018) investigated the “mystery”

around the striking reduction of homicides in the State of São Paulo in the 2000s.

These findings are in line with the observation made by Waiselfisz (2011) regarding

“new patterns” of the geographic distribution of homicide rates in the 2000s, whereby

crime clusters are expanding from capital cities and metropolitan areas to the inland

and smaller cities. Andrade and Diniz (2013) concluded that such increasing growth

of homicide rates in inland municipalities is largely due to their changing economic

dynamics.

This study builds on the evidence from previous empirical studies from Brazil and

uses the social disorganization theoretical framework developed by Shaw and Mckay

(1942) and extended by Sampson and Groves (1989). Therefore, this study posits that

the effect of economic dynamics on the spatial and temporal growth pattern of lethal

violence observed by Andrade and Diniz (2013) for Brazil is only part of a bigger

picture—changes in social disorganization factors, among which, in this study, the

focus is given to economic deprivation, population heterogeneity, and urbanization.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the space-temporal growth of

homicide rates in Brazil from 2000 to 2017 and identify predictors of its growth. First,

the spatial clusters of homicide rates are identified at the municipal level and their

geographical evolution is evidenced. Subsequently, the temporal growth pattern of

homicide rates is descriptively and empirically assessed. Finally, the determinants of

the growth of these rates are identified bearing on the social disorganization theoreti-

cal framework and acknowledging the spatial and temporal patterns observed in the

first two stages.

The novelty of this study is the combination of homicide growth models and the use

of spatial statistics and GIS (geographical information systems) in identifying signifi-

cant space-temporal patterns and the evolution of homicide rates over time.

Accordingly, these patterns are controlled in the empirical model used in investigating

predictors of homicide rates.

Theory and Hypotheses

The Spatial Concentration of Lethal Violence

Crime does not happen randomly in space or time and research has shown that homi-

cides, in particular, tend to show highly concentrated patterns (Cohen & Felson, 1979;