From the Brady Bunch to Gilmore Girls: The Effect of Household Size on Economic Voting

• Author: Manuel E. Lago,Ignacio Lago
• Published date: 01 July 2021
• Date: 01 July 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211005672
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211005672

American Politics Research

2021, Vol. 49(4) 400 –411

© The Author(s) 2021

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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X211005672

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Article

Introduction

The number of household members varies substantially

across families, both within countries and over time. In 2019,

for instance, 28.4% of American households were one-per-

son, while the average household size has declined nearly

everywhere in the last few decades (United Nations, 2017)

and this downward trend is expected to continue (OECD,

2011). In France, for example, the average household size

fell from 3.1 persons per household in 1966 to 2.3 in 2011; in

Kenya, from 5.3 in 1969 to 4.0 in 2014 (United Nations,

2017); and in the United States, from 3.3 in 1960 to 2.5 in

2019, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Family TV

shows in the United States nicely illustrate this demographic

change. In the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, The Brady Bunch

was a popular sitcom following the day-to-day lives of a

blended family of six children; in the 2000s, Gilmore Girls

followed a single mother and her daughter.

This article examines whether household structure

affects economic voting in the United States. We argue that

household size (i.e., the number of persons who make com-

mon provision of food, shelter, and other essentials for liv-

ing, according to the definition in United Nations, 2017, p.

1) is highly relevant to shaping the influence of the econ-

omy on election results. Both perceptions of national eco-

nomic conditions and personal economic experiences are

endogenous to household size, captured with the number of

adults in the household. Individuals’ economic opinions are

to some extent an aggregation of household members’

personal experiences. The higher the number of members

of a household, the more variation in personal economic

experiences within the household is expected. The aggrega-

tion of individual financial evaluations in multi-person

households will presumably cancel out the variation in eco-

nomic opinions, thereby leaving more moderate or mid-

range retrospective evaluations of national and personal

economic conditions than in one-person households.

Relying on individual-level data from the Cumulative

Data File of the American National Election Study across

U.S. presidential elections from 1966 to 2016, we begin

by noting that household size affects evaluations of

national economic conditions both directly and indirectly

through personal financial experiences. Binomial logit

models including more than 20,000 individuals provide

fairly conclusive evidence that people in multi-person

households have more moderate views of economic per-

formance than individuals in one-person households.

Using aggregated state-level data from five U.S. presiden-

tial elections, we assess whether the number of household

1005672APRXXX10.1177/1532673X211005672American Politics ResearchLago and Lago

research-article2021

1University College of Dublin, Belfield, Ireland and Governance and

Economics research Network (GEN)

2Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain and Governance and

Economics research Network (GEN)

Corresponding Author:

Ignacio Lago, Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat

Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, Barcelona 08005, Spain.

Email: ignacio.lago@upf.edu

From the Brady Bunch to Gilmore

Girls: The Effect of Household Size

on Economic Voting

Manuel E. Lago1 and Ignacio Lago2

Abstract

This article examines whether household size affects economic voting. We argue when individuals are asked about national

economic conditions and their personal financial situation that moderate or mid-range responses are more likely in multi-

person households than in one-person households. The aggregation of personal economic evaluations within households

reduces the variation in economic opinions across household members. As a result, it is harder for an individual to say that

the national economic conditions and her personal financial situation are good or bad as the number of household members

increases. Using individual-level data from the American National Election Studies from 1966 to 2016, the authors find

that both evaluations of the national economy and personal economic conditions are endogenous to household size. The

aggregate, state-level evidence from five presidential elections in the U.S. shows that the impact of the economy on the

incumbent support increases the larger the number of one-person households.

Keywords

economic voting, household size, personal financial experience, sociotropic economic evaluation, U.S. presidential elections