A Few Clarifying Comments on Pickett and Roche (2016)

• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12230
• Author: Sean Patrick Roche,Justin T. Pickett
• Date: 01 August 2016
• Published date: 01 August 2016

POLICY ESSAY

DIRECTIONS IN DETERRENCE THEORY

AND POLICY

A Few Clarifying Comments on Pickett

and Roche (2016)

Justin T.Pickett

Sean Patrick Roche

University at Albany, SUNY

In his response to our article (Pickett and Roche, 2016: 727–751), Nagin (2016: 753–

765) was silent about most of our specific criticisms of his previous research reviews

and his recent theory, outlined in Nagin, Solow, and Lum (2015; hereafter “NSL”).

We assume that he concedes these points. In a handful of instances, Nagin challenged our

interpretation of NSL and the logic of our arguments. In this essay, we attempt to clarify

those issues, first providing Nagin’s text, followed by our response.

1) “PR’s [Pickett and Roche, 2016] criticisms of the NSL model reflect a literalism in interpre-

tation . . . such models are intended to be ‘ used not believed.’”

We took NSL’s (2015) theoretical model literally and evaluated it on the basis of its

believability. NSL never advised readers against doing so, nor did they disclose that their

model was a “deliberately simplified representation” (Nagin,2016). Now that we know this,

we are even less comfortable with NSL’s strong policy recommendations, which we assume

they did intend to be taken literally.

2) “PR’s (2016) most important error in interpretation of NSL (2015), and indeed in logic

more generally, stems from their conclusion that research showing systematic biases in risk

perceptions has demonstrated that risk perceptions have no grounding in reality.”

Here and elsewhere, Nagin (2016) sets up a straw-man argument whereby any evi-

dence of a connection, even a very weak connection, between objective and perceived risk

invalidates all of our criticisms. He then locates such evidence in anecdotes (e.g., about

Tiffany’sin midtown Manhattan), qualitative interviews with offenders, and studies of how

Direct correspondence to Justin T. Pickett, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, SUNY, 135 Western

Avenue, Albany, NY 12222 (e-mail: jpickett@albany.edu).

DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12230 C2016 American Society of Criminology 831

Criminology & Public Policy rVolume 15 rIssue 3