Explaining Sentence Severity in Large Urban Counties: A Multilevel Analysis of Contextual and Case-Level Factors

• Author: Richard Frase,Iain Pardoe,Robert R. Weidner
• Date: 01 June 2004
• Published date: 01 June 2004
• DOI: 10.1177/0032885504265077
• Subject Matter: Journal Article

10.1177/0032885504265077THE PRISON JOURNAL / June 2004Weidner et al. / SENTENCE SEVERITY

EXPLAINING SENTENCE SEVERITY IN

LARGE URBAN COUNTIES: A MULTILEVEL

ANALYSIS OF CONTEXTUAL AND

CASE-LEVEL FACTORS

ROBERT R. WEIDNER

University of Minnesota Duluth

RICHARD FRASE

University of Minnesota Law School

IAIN PARDOE

University of Oregon

This study used hierarchicallogistic modeling to examine the impact of legal, extrale-

gal, and contextual variables on the decision to sentence felons to prison in a sample

of large urban counties in 1996. None of the four contextual (county-level) vari-

ables—the level of crime, unemployment rate, racial composition, and region—

increasedthe likelihood of a prison sentence, but 10 case-level factors, both legal and

extralegal,and several macro-micro interaction terms were influential. These results

demonstrate the importance of considering smaller geographic units (i.e., counties

instead of states) and controlling for case-level factors in research on interjuris-

dictional differences in prison use.

Keywords: contextual factors; county sentencing variations; hierarchical

modeling; prison sentences

This study sought to contribute to the body of research that explains

interjurisdictional differences in prison use by determining the effect of con-

textual factors on the court processing of individual felony cases. This

An earlier version of this article was presented at the 2001 annual meeting of the American

Society of Criminology in Atlanta. This research was supported in part by a grant from the

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), administered by the American Statistical Association (ASA).

Neither the BJS nor the ASA bears responsibility for the data analyses and interpretations pre-

sentedherein. Correspondenceconcerning this articleshould beaddressed to Robert R. Weidner,

Department of Sociology-Anthropology, University of Minnesota Duluth, 228 Cina Hall, 10

University Drive, Duluth, MN 55812; e-mail: rweidner@umn.edu.

THE PRISON JOURNAL, Vol. 84 No. 2, June 2004 184-207

DOI: 10.1177/0032885504265077

© 2004 Sage Publications

184

research used felony court case processing data from a sample of 30 urban

counties located in 16 states to examine interjurisdictional differences in sen-

tence severity, defined as the likelihood of a convicted felon receiving a

prison sentence. It aimed to control for many case-based legal and extralegal

factors underlying punishment severity,while accounting for contextualfac

-

tors (i.e., crime rate, unemployment level, racial composition, and region of

country) that have been found to be influential in research that has used states

and counties as units of analysis.

BACKGROUND

The most commonly used gauge of interjurisdictional differences in

punitiveness within the United States probably is states’ rates of imprison-

ment. According to this measure, as of 2000, the United States imprisoned its

citizens at a rate of 478 per 100,000 (Beck & Harrison, 2001, p. 3), a national

rate that is 6 to 12 times as high as those of other Western countries (Tonry,

1999, p. 419). Yetthis overall penal severity belies great variation in levels of

imprisonment within the United States. For example, in 2000, Louisiana had

a prison rate (801 per 100,000 residents) that was over 6 times as high as that

of Minnesota (128 per 100,000) (Beck & Harrison, 2001, p. 3). Moreover,

these differences are remarkably stable over time, despite the dramatic

increases in state imprisonment rates in recent years—up 253% since 1978

(Beck, 2000, p. 3; Maguire & Pastore, 1999, p. 491). The rank-order correla-

tion for states’rates of imprisonment for the years 1978 and 1999 is .77, with

southern states tending to be ranked highly in both years. Louisiana, the 1st-

ranked state in 1999, was ranked 8th in 1978; Minnesota, the 50th-ranked

state in 1999, was ranked 48th in 1978.

RESEARCH ON INTERSTATE VARIATION IN PRISON USE

Many studies have used multivariate analyses to attempt to explainthese

marked, constant differences in prison use among the states.1There have

been some consistent findings across these macro-level studies. For exam-

ple, most have found violent crime rate to exert a positiveinfluence on prison

use (Carrroll & Doubet, 1983; Greenberg & West, 2001; McGarrell, 1993;

Michalowski & Pearson, 1990; Taggart & Winn, 1993). A host of extralegal

factors havebeen found to play key roles in explaining the severity of punish-

ment as well. These include the percentage of the population that is African

American (Arvanites, 1992; McGarrell, 1993), political conservatism

(Greenberg & West, 2001; Taggart & Winn, 1993), and region (southern

Weidner et al. / SENTENCE SEVERITY 185