Economics and Industry
| Author | William Fellner |
| Published date | 01 March 1951 |
| Date | 01 March 1951 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/000271625127400157 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
229
ciplined
and
imformed
imagination,
and
common
sense.
His
discussion
of
traces
goes
straightway
into
a
scrutiny
of
doubt
and
certitude
which
leads
to
a
praise
of
pragmatism.
Part
Three,
&dquo;Telling
the
Story,&dquo;
examines
such
problems
of
history
writing
as
serialization
and
the
role
of
outsize
men.
All
these
present
the
author
with
occasions
for
the
development
of
his
favorite
theme,
the
repudiation
of
abso-
lutes
and
the
quest
for
a
counterpoint
of
values
and
ethics
which,
being
workable,
will
lead
to
a
report
of
superlative,
yet
rela-
tive,
accuracy.
Always
Renier
the
pragmatist
is
con-
cerned
with
history
as
an
operation,
not
an
essence,
as
a
seeking
for
happenings,
not
causes.
Historian
as
pragmatists,
he
avers,
while
far
from
knowing
how
they
know,
must
act
as
if
they
had
indeed
laid
hold
of
facts.
At
least,
Renier
insists,
pragmatic
methods,
being
neither
universal
nor
sacred,
do
not
lead
to
enforcement
by
concentration
camps.
History
is
an
act
of
ethics,
not
an
act
of
faith.
Using
psy-
chological
concepts
of
ambivalence,
he
holds
that
dogmatism
and
certainty
are
psychologically
and
perhaps
inevitably
linked
to
doubt
and
scepticism.
Renier’s
knowledge
is
wide,
and
his
choice
of
words
is
often
unusual
and
fit-
ting ;
however
at
times
he
seems
to
choose
words
like
a
baton-twirler.
Here
is
a
book
for
individuals
who
wish
to
think
deeply
on
questions
which
may
affect
little
their
historical
methodology
but
which
will
en-
rich
their
minds
and
mellow
their
toler-
ances.
The
final
value
attached
to
this
work
by
a
reader
rests,
I
suspect,
on
his
feelings
toward
pragmatism.
GARLAND
DOWNUM
Arizona
State
College
ECONOMICS
AND
INDUSTRY
BURNS,
ARTHUR
F.
New
Facts
on
Busi-
ness
Cycles.
Twentieth
Annual
Report
of
the
National
Bureau
of
Economic
Re-
search.
Pp.
83.
New
York,
1950.
No
price.
This
report
announces
the
National
Bu-
reau’s
publication
program
for
the
near
future,
and
it
gives
a
brief
account
of
some
empirical
findings
to
be
presented
and
dis-
cussed
in
these
publications.
The
list
in-
cludes
Wesley
Mitchell’s
unfinished
book
(What
Happens
during
Business
Cycles?)
as
well
as
Moses
Abramovitz’s:
volume
on
inventories
and
Occasional
Papers
by
Creamer,
Hultgren,
Moore,
and
others.
Merely
a
few
results
are
submitted
in
ad-
vance
to
the
reader
of
the
Annual
Report,
but
these
are
interesting
and
well
suited
for
creating
curiosity
in
what
is
to
follow.
For
example,
we
learn
from
this
Report
that
that
percentage
of
all
time
series
ex-
amined
which
expands
(moves
upward)
at
any one
time,
starts
falling
six
months
or
a
year
earlier
than
business
activity
in
the
aggregative
sense,
and
that
a
similar
lead
is
observable
on
the
upturn.
In
other
words,
prior
to
the
downturn
expansion
starts
becoming
a
less
typical
characteristic
of
all
time
series
examined,
and
prior
to
the
upturn
contraction
starts
becoming
a
less
typical
characteristic
(in
the
sense
that
the
behavior
of
an
increasing
percentage
of
all
time
series
is
getting
to
be
contrary
to
the
behavior
of
aggregate
business
activity).
A
similar
relationship
was
established
for
profits.
The
percentage
of
all
firms
whose
profits
fall
at
any one
time
starts
increas-
ing
before
total
profits
fall
and
the
anal-
ogous
relationship
is
observable
around
the
lower
turning
point.
These
and
other
findings
may
prove
useful
for
properly
qualified
&dquo;forecasting,&dquo;
although
the
Report
emphasizes
that
the
changes
in
economic
organization
and
episodic
and
random
fac-
tors
make
each
business
cycle
a
unique
con-
figuration
of
events.
WILLIAM
FELLNER
University
of
California
BOULDING,
KENNETH
E.
A
Reconstruction
of
Economics.
Pp.
xiv,
311.
New
York :
John
Wiley
&
Sons,
1950.
$4.50.
This
book
is
intended
for
the
specialist
in
economic
theory
and
not
for
the
layman.
It
presupposes
a
professional
knowledge
of
economic
theory.
The
general
reader
with
a
deficiency
in
mathematics
will
be
unable
to
follow
some
of
the
theory.
It
is
easy
to
agree
with
Professor
Boulding
that
the
title
of
the
book
is
too
pretentious.
&dquo;It
is
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