Drug Generations in the 2000s

• Date: 01 July 2013
• Author: Henry H. Brownstein,Andrew Golub
• Published date: 01 July 2013
• DOI: 10.1177/0022042613475599
• Subject Matter: Articles

Journal of Drug Issues

43(3) 335 –356

© The Author(s) 2013

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DOI: 10.1177/0022042613475599

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Article

475599JODXXX10.1177/0022042613475599Journ

al of Drug IssuesGolub and Brownstein

1National Development and Research Institutes, New York, NY, USA

2NORC at the University of Chicago, Bethesda, MD, USA

Corresponding Author:

Andrew Golub, National Development and Research Institutes, 71 West 23rd Street, 8th Floor, New York, NY 10010,

USA.

Email: golub@ndri.org

Drug Generations in the 2000s:

An Analysis of Arrestee Data

Andrew Golub1 and Henry H. Brownstein2

Abstract

Much empirical evidence indicates that the popularity of various drugs tends to increase and

wane over time producing episodic epidemics of particular drugs. These epidemics mostly affect

persons reaching their late teens at the time of the epidemic resulting in distinct drug genera-

tions. This article examines the drug generations present in the 2000s among arrestees in the

10 locations served by the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring–II program. At all 10 locations, our

findings show that crack use is still common among older arrestees but not among arrestees

born more recently. Marijuana is the drug most common among younger arrestees. The article

also examines trends in heroin, methamphetamine , and powder cocaine use among arrestees at

the few locations where their use was substantial.

Keywords

drug epidemics, subculture, marijuana, crack, drug generations

Introduction

The use of illegal drugs varies widely over time, across locations, and across groups of people

living in a community. However, our social existence leads to clearly discernible patterns of

drug use (Brownstein, Mulcahy, Taylor, Fernandes-Huessy, & Woods, 2012; Golub, Johnson, &

Dunlap, 2005; Johnson & Golub, 2005). For the past two decades, we have been studying drug

epidemics extensively, especially among arrestees using data from the Drug Use Forecasting

(DUF) program and then its successor, the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program.

This article provides an update on the major drug use trends among arrestees using the latest

ADAM data collected during the 2000s from 10 geographically diverse locations.

A key finding from our prior work has been that the variation in drug use over time is rooted

in drug use preferences across birth cohorts. This insight has led us to develop a concise way of

exploring and presenting drug use trends that we refer to as the “drug generations framework.”

This article first reviews the drug epidemics framework and then presents how the drug genera-

tions framework follows from it. The drug generations framework provides a powerful concise

snapshot of the drug problems prevailing at a specific place and time and its differential impact

336 Journal of Drug Issues 43(3)

across birth cohorts. These differences can have important implications for the development of

timely, targeted drug abuse interventions (Caulkins, Tragler, & Wallner, 2009). An advantage of

the drug generations framework is that it examines the impact of multiple overlapping epidemics

simultaneously and their differential impact on successive birth cohorts.

A related publication provides a complete analysis of the time trend for the most common

street drugs (marijuana, crack, powder cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine) at each of the

10 locations served by the ADAM II program (Golub & Brownstein, 2012). That extended report

uses the drug epidemics and drug generations frameworks as a basis to analyzing various logistic

regression and graphical analyses. That study reports that at each of the 10 ADAM II locations,

the use of marijuana was experiencing a plateau of widespread popularity, whereas the use of

crack was in decline. A few locations had detected use of powder cocaine, heroin, or metham-

phetamine greater than 10% in any year. This article examines the drug generations associated

with those drugs at those locations. The remainder of this section describes the drug epidemics

framework and how drug epidemics lead to the rise of drug generations.

Drug Epidemics

Prior empirical research suggests that the popularity of a drug will often grow and then wane

forming distinct drug epidemics (Becker, 1967; Hamid, 1992; Hunt & Chambers, 1976;

Johnston, 1991; Musto, 1993). The natural course of these drug epidemics is mathematically

similar to disease epidemics (Anderson & May, 1991) and to other diffusion of innovation

phenomena such as the spread of new agricultural technology, teaching methods, or fashions

(Rogers, 1995). Golub et al. (2005) identified that a drug epidemic tends to pass through four

distinct phases: incubation, expansion, plateau, and decline. This framework was central in

pinpointing the decline of the crack epidemic, its expected course for the near future, and the

variation across locations (Golub & Johnson, 1994, 1996, 1997; Johnson, Golub, & Dunlap,

2006). The framework has been subsequently used to analyze the emergence of the latest

Marijuana/Blunts1 Epidemic of the 1990s (Golub, 2005; Golub & Johnson, 2001; Golub,

Johnson, Dunlap, & Sifaneck, 2004) as well as to study the course of the Heroin Injection

Epidemic prevailing in the 1960s and early 1970s (Golub & Johnson, 2005; Johnson & Golub,

2002) and to evaluate the significance of a modest rise in use of hallucinogens such as MDMA

in the 1990s (Golub, Johnson, Sifaneck, Chesluk, & Parker, 2001). The remainder of this sec-

tion describes each phase.

Incubation Phase. A drug epidemic typically starts among a highly limited subpopulation. At that

time, the use of a drug is uncommon. In general, the incubation phase cannot be identified in

advance. It is only after an epidemic has undergone an expansion that one can estimate that an

incubation period occurred and when. Ethnographic research indicates that the incubation phase

for recent drug epidemics have been associated with very specific contexts involving social gath-

erings, music, and fashion. The Heroin Injection Epidemic grew out of the jazz music scene

(Jonnes, 2002). The Crack Epidemic started with inner-city drug dealers at after-hours clubs

(Hamid, 1992). In addition, the Marijuana/Blunts Epidemic was based on the hip-hop movement

(Sifaneck, Kaplan, Dunlap, & Johnson, 2003).

Expansion Phase. Sometimes, the pioneering drug users successfully introduce the practice to the

broader population. At this point, a drug becomes popular and its use becomes the thing to do for

many. The increasing prevalence of use tends to follow an S-shape with initial exponential

growth that subsequently tapers off. Figure 1 illustrates the expansion phase for the Marijuana/

Blunts Epidemic as it developed in Chicago. The chart presents previously published DUF

arrestee data for 1987 through 1999 (Golub & Johnson, 2001). The ADAM data for 2000 to 2010