Do Changes in Bar Opening Hours Influence Violence in the Night? Evidence from 13 Bavarian Towns

• Date: 01 April 2018
• DOI: 10.1177/0022042617753146
• Published date: 01 April 2018
• Author: Falko Tesch,Lukas Hohendorf
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0022042617753146

Journal of Drug Issues

2018, Vol. 48(2) 295 –306

© The Author(s) 2018

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DOI: 10.1177/0022042617753146

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Article

Do Changes in Bar Opening Hours

Influence Violence in the Night?

Evidence from 13 Bavarian Towns

Falko Tesch1 and Lukas Hohendorf2

Abstract

Changes in opening hours for on-premise drinking places may influence the level of alcohol-related

violence in two ways. The increased availability of alcohol increases the risks associated with it,

while restrictive opening hours may produce more occasions for crime due to overcrowding

at closing time. We use a quasi-experimental design with data from 13 Bavarian towns with and

without restrictive opening hours and a negative binomial panel model. The outcome measure

is violent incidents reported by the police between 2:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. over the period of

12 years. Incidents at night disproportionally increase over the study period in the sample. After

controlling for daily violence as well as for an interaction between policy regime and violence

level, we find that restricted opening hours are only beneficial within settings of a low daily

violence level.

Keywords

closing hours, opening hours, alcohol-related crime, policy analysis, count panel model

Background

The major aim for governments restricting the opening hours for on-premise drinking places is

obviously to decrease the number of occurrences of unwanted behavior such as noise, bodily

harm, and damage to property and thus provide the common good of public safety. The instru-

ment is thought to prevent people from drinking alcohol in bars or nightclubs and from being

outdoors on their way home after a certain time. In 2014, 11.7% of all offenders in Germany were

under the influence of alcohol. Regarding damage to property, 25.5% were intoxicated, and when

it comes to violent incidences, the rate is 29.4% (Bundeskriminalamt, 2015).

However, the scientific community does not agree unequivocally on the effectiveness of

restricting opening hours in both theoretical and empirical terms. Besides this basic question,

such restrictions collide with civil liberties and economic interests of local barkeepers. These

three dimensions of restrictive opening hours make it a socially relevant question that should be

studied carefully. Previous studies lack the control of daily violence rates and often ignore gen-

eral time trends in violence as confounder. As our study will show, at first glance, restrictions

seem to fulfill the desired purpose, but under the control of daily violence, this effect got

1Center for Evidence-Based Healthcare, Medizinische Fakultät Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, Germany

2Professorship of Empirical Political Science, University of Bamberg, Germany

Corresponding Author:

Falko Tesch, Center for Evidence-Based Healthcare, Medizinische Fakultät Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität

Dresden, Fetscherstraße 74,01307 Dresdem, Germany.

Email: falko.tesch@uniklinikum-dresden.de

753146JODXXX10.1177/0022042617753146Journal of Drug IssuesTesch and Hohendorf

research-article2018