Determinants of Intercountry Prison Incarceration Rates and Overcrowding in Latin America and the Caribbean

• Date: 01 March 2020
• DOI: 10.1177/1057567719830530
• Author: Katherine E. Limoncelli,Jeff Mellow,Chongmin Na
• Published date: 01 March 2020
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article
International Criminal Justice Review
2020, Vol. 30(1) 10-29
Determinants of Intercountry
ª 2019 Georgia State University
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Prison Incarceration Rates
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DOI: 10.1177/1057567719830530
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and Overcrowding in Latin
America and the Caribbean
Katherine E. Limoncelli1, Jeff Mellow1,
and Chongmin Na1
Abstract
Research on prison population rates and prison overcrowding has largely been limited to U.S.
populations. While these studies offer valuable insight into the broader-level factors affecting rates
of imprisonment, along with correlates associated with pervasive levels of crowding, less is known
about the macro-level causes of elevated imprisonment rates and increasingly high levels of prison
crowding across Latin America and the Caribbean. A modified version of negative binomial random-
effects model with between- and within-country transformations of time-varying covariates was
utilized to test the influence of political, social, and economic factors on the prison population rate
between countries and within countries over multiple time points. An ordinary least squares
regression model was adopted to analyze the extent to which countries’ levels of political stability,
government effectiveness, intentional homicide rates, and unemployment are related to national
levels of prison overcrowding percentages. Findings demonstrate that government effectiveness and
political stability are significantly and positively associated with increased prison population rates
both between countries and within countries over time, while government effectiveness is simul-
taneously negatively related to prison overcrowding across countries.
Keywords
government effectiveness, prison overcrowding, incarceration, political stability, international
The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has experienced a violent crime epidemic
with homicide rates 4 times the global average (Inter-American Development Bank, 2017b). A
popular hypothesis both in the United States and across LAC is that a rise in violent crime rates
increases the punitive response to crime and a surge in incarceration (Arvanites & Asher, 1995;
Muggah, 2017). On face value, this appears to be true. The LAC homicide rate in 2015 stood at 24
1 John Jay College of Criminal Justice, New York, NY, USA
Corresponding Author:
Katherine E. Limoncelli, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, 524 W 59th St, New York, NY 10019, USA.
Email: klimoncelli@jjay.cuny.edu

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Limoncelli et al.
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homicides per 100,000 population, accounting for 33% of global murders despite the region being
home to just 9% of the world population (Inter-American Development Bank, 2017b). In the last 15
years, LAC countries have seen their prison populations increase by more than half, with some
countries’ prison population rates, like Colombia and Brazil, more than doubling (Penal Reform
International, 2015). To quote the United Nations Development Program (UNDP, 2013), “The
penitentiary system is in crisis in virtually all countries in the region” (p. 11).
However, there is also a large body of research that finds the impact of crime on incarceration rates
is mediated by other factors such as “tough on crime” legislation, which mandates lengthier sentences,
more aggressive prosecutions, and a shift from indeterminate to determinate sentencing (Pfaff, 2017;
Tonry, 1996; Weidner & Frase, 2003). Pretrial detention practices have also become more widespread
and punitive (Open Society Foundations, 2011). According to other research, prison population
increases cannot solely be attributed to changes in criminal justice laws, policies, and procedures.
Rather, they reflect and are influenced by unique macro-level factors such as fiscal capacity, increase
in law enforcement efficiency, and the fear among the population that new groups of criminal pre-
dators are destabilizing society (Feeley & Simon, 1992; Hawkins, 1995; Tonry, 1996).
Previous studies, however, have not thoroughly investigated the macro-level factors impacting
the cross-national variation in prison population rates and levels of prison overcrowding in LAC
(Albrecht, 2011; Carranza, 2014; Garland, 2001). Little is known about the causes and consequences
of prison overcrowding in LAC, so addressing this issue helps fill a gap across current literature. The
intent of this study is to adopt a macro-level approach to examine the determinants of between- and
within-country incarceration and overcrowding rates in LAC. Specifically, the study will assess the
impact that intentional homicide rates, government effectiveness, political stability, and unemploy-
ment have on LAC countries’ incarceration and overcrowding rates in order to shed more light on
the belief that violence alone is generating the rising levels of incarceration and prison crowding.
Literature Review
Effects of Prison Imprisonment and Overcrowding in Latin American and the Caribbean
While reform efforts are present, such as recent efforts to reduce the number of pretrial detainees
in Chile, Costa Rica, and Ecuador, along with new prison construction in El Salvador, fewer LAC
countries have implemented wide-ranging criminal justice reforms to reduce prison overcrowding
(Inter-American Development Bank, 2017b). Compounding the severe levels of overcrowding in
many LAC nations’ prisons is shortages of food and water, limited numbers of beds, poor sanitation
and hygiene, inmate-on-inmate and staff–inmate violence, and institutional mismanagement (Bierie,
2012; Carranza, 2014; Department of Peacekeeping Operations, 2011; Inter-American Commission
on Human Rights, 2017). This creates an environment not only conducive to the spread of lethal
infectious diseases but also to violence, riots, escapes, and recidivism (Gaes, 1994; Garcia-Guerrero
& Marco, 2012; Huey & McNulty, 2005; Jewkes, 2011; Van Ness, 2001). For example, HIV,
tuberculosis, pneumonia, and parasitic diseases flourish in overcrowded, unsanitary, and poorly
ventilated LAC prisons where medical screening and access to treatment are limited (Ayala, Garay,
Aragon, Decroo, & Zachariah, 2016; Garcia-Guerrero & Marco, 2012).
Overcrowding can also indirectly facilitate violence, often because of the lack of appropriate
external (e.g., custodial level) and internal (e.g., housing assignment) classification (though it is
worth noting that not all overcrowded prisons are violent, per se). In addition, multiple violent prison
riots among rival gangs have erupted in countries such as Venezuela and Brazil (Cowie, 2017;
Krygier, 2018). Violent outbursts and unsafe conditions, which may be linked back to the partic-
ularly high levels of overcapacity (Specter, 2010), unfortunately constitute the norm in many of
these jails and prisons, rather than the exception. Further, high numbers of unsentenced pretrial

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International Criminal Justice Review 30(1)
detainees within facilities are exposed to unsafe and unsanitary conditions as well as inmates who
may be impulsive, violent, or physically ill (Angelos & Jacobs, 1985; Bleich, 1989; Kaufman, 1985).
Macro-Level Factors of Latin American and Caribbean Imprisonment and Overcrowding
Pervasive prison crowding cannot be fully explained by the conditions of regional or national
penal institutions. Rather, the broad problem of mass incarceration in the LAC region and problems
with overcrowding can best be understood through a multidimensional approach; this includes
assessing social, political, and economic trends and influences affecting each LAC nation. Accord-
ing to the UNDP (2013), the notion of citizen insecurity (i.e., citizens’ beliefs that crime and
violence are limiting their opportunities to live a life free of threats and fear) plays a large role in
the construction of social attitudes and institutional change across the LAC region. For example,
citizen insecurity negatively impacts individuals’ lives and welfare, disrupts communities and
institutions, and is associated with deficits in human development and trust in law enforcement
institutions. Furthermore, threats to security operate in an environment of social, institutional, and
economic vulnerability, which together constitute specific risk factors unique to each nation
(Hathazy & Mu¨ller, 2016; Mauer, 2017; UNDP, 2013).
Mauer (2017) asserts that incarceration is not just viewed as the result of individual or societal failure
but also as an overall assessment of the amount and type of punishment a society is willing to impose.
Such attitudes can reflect political, cultural, and economic sensibilities of the nation and are subject to
changes and fluctuations over time (Garland, 2001; Tonry, 2004). While much of this research has been
restricted to more developed nations, exploring relationships between social structures and imprison-
ment may nevertheless have important implications and relevance for LAC nations (Hathazy & Mu¨ller,
2016; UNDP, 2013). Social, political, and economic factors may not only be responsible for explaining
citizen insecurity but also for providing insights into prison rates and ultimately pervasive crowding.
Violent crime rates. The movement toward more punitive criminal sanctions is, in part, the result of
LAC citizens’ perception that criminal gangs are the leading cause of the extraordinary increase in
violent crimes in their countries (Nagle, 2008). While this perception is generally false, it has led to
“mano dura” policies that involve longer imprisonment sentences and lower evidence standards for
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