Crossing thresholds: The use of spatial analysis to identify intensification of the Colombian conflict

• Author: Jennifer S. Holmes,Mercedez Callenes,Álvaro Cardenas,Agustin Palao‐Mendizabal
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/crq.21265
• Published date: 01 December 2019
• Date: 01 December 2019

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Crossing thresholds: The use of spatial analysis to

identify intensification of the Colombian conflict

Agustin Palao-Mendizabal | Jennifer S. Holmes | Mercedez Callenes |



Alvaro Cardenas

School of Economic, Political and Policy

Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas

(GR 31), Richardson, Texas

Correspondence

Jennifer S. Holmes, School of Economic,

Political and Policy Sciences, University of

Texas at Dallas (GR 31), 800 W Campbell

Road, Richardson, TX 75080-3021.

Email: jholmes@utdallas.edu

Abstract

This research note uses exploratory spatial data analysis

(ESDA) to understand regional conflict escalation. This

study suggests rethinking the use of strict thresholds of

conflict in studies of civil war, given that hot spots are pre-

dictors of conflict escalation. In the Colombian case,

human rights violations hot spots are predictors of higher

intensity conflict escalation.

1|INTRODUCTION

When analyzing the determinants of violence, the spatial dimension is often unnoticed. This research

note demonstrates how exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) can enhance the understanding of

violence by providing insights about regional conflict escalation. Colombia is a unique case since it

has different types of violence that are typically associated with both low-level guerrilla conflict and

also warlike clashes. In the Colombian case, human rights violations (HRVs) hot spots are predictors

of conflict escalation. This study suggests rethinking the use of strict thresholds of conflict in studies

of civil war, given that hot spots are predictors of conflict escalation.

2|THE COLOMBIAN CASE

For decades, Colombia has suffered from internal conflict. The current conflict is widely understood

to have emerged in 1964, in response to the power sharing agreement that settled the civil war, “La

Violencia,”that started in 1948 between the main political parties, the Conservatives and the Lib-

erals. The power sharing agreement, called the National Front, was successful in the sense that it set-

tled the conflict between the main political parties, but it created new conflict due to its exclusionary

nature. Parties or groups other than the Liberals or Conservatives were not allowed to gain power

through elections, thus inspiring rebel movements. In addition to leftist insurgents such as the FARC

(Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and the ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional),

Received: 19 February 2019 Revised: 13 June 2019 Accepted: 12 July 2019

DOI: 10.1002/crq.21265

Conflict Resolution Quarterly. 2019;37:177–187. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/crq © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 177