A Comparison of Burglary Near Repeat Victimization Between Rural and Urban Areas Using a Target-Based Assessment of Criminal Opportunity

• Author: Spencer P. Chainey
• Date: 01 December 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/10575677211041920
• Published date: 01 December 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

A Comparison of Burglary

Near Repeat Victimization

Between Rural and Urban

Areas Using a Target-Based

Assessment of Criminal

Opportunity

Spencer P. Chainey

Abstract

Numerous studies have shown that near repeat victimization of burglaries can account for a sub-

stantial minority of burglaries in urban settings. Using a method based on the distribution of poten-

tial targets to determine the size of spatial bandwidths, the presence of burglary near repeats in

rural areas was examined and compared to the level of near repeats in urban areas. A signif‌icant

burglary near repeat pattern was observed in rural areas, but was restricted to the spatial and tem-

poral bands that were closest to and most recently after a previous burglary. The proportion of all

burglaries that were near repeats in this nearest spatial and temporal bands was greater than that

observed in urban areas. The f‌indings lead to extending how the boost account and offender for-

aging principles may apply in rural settings, and the identif‌ication of crime prevention opportunities

that counter near repeats in rural areas.

Keywords

Near repeats, rural areas, offender foraging, boost account, target distribution

Introduction

Near repeat victimization is the empirically observed pattern of a person or target (e.g., a house)

being a victim of crime soon after a nearby similar incident (Townsley et al., 2003). The pattern of

near repeat victimization has been observed for a range of crime types, including domestic burglary

(Johnson & Bowers, 2004; Johnson et al., 2007; Pease, 1998), vehicle crime (Johnson et al., 2009),

robbery (de Melo et al., 2018), sex offenses (Amemiya et al., 2020), shootings (Haberman &

Department of Security and Crime Science, Faculty of Engineering Science, UCL Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime

Science, London, UK

Corresponding Author:

Spencer P. Chainey, Department of Security and Crime Science, Faculty of Engineering Science, University College London,

London, UK.

Email: spencer.chainey@ucl.ac.uk

Article

International Criminal Justice Review

2021, Vol. 31(4) 405-419

© 2021 Georgia State University

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DOI: 10.1177/10575677211041920

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