Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction in a Young Democracy: A Test of the Expectancy‐Disconfirmation Model

• Author: Filadelfo León‐Cázares,Jue Young Mok,Nicolai Petrovsky
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12623
• Published date: 01 May 2017
• Date: 01 May 2017

Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction in a Young Democracy: A Test of the Expectancy-Disconf‌i rmation Model 395

Public Administration Review,

Vol. 77, Iss. 3, pp. 395–407. © 2016 by

The American Society for Public Administration.

DOI: 10.1111/puar.12623.

Filadelfo León-Cázares is associate

professor at the University of Guadalajara,

Mexico. He received his PhD from the

University of North Texas. His research

interests include organizational citizenship

behavior, public service motivation,

leadership, and organizational performance.

His work has been published in journals

such as

British Journal of Management

and

International Journal of Public

Administration.

E-mail : filadelfo@cucea.udg.mx

Jue Young Mok is a doctoral candidate

in the Martin School of Public Policy

and Administration at the University of

Kentucky. Her work bridges psychology and

public management. Her research interests

center on citizen perceptions of information

and citizen behavior in public policies and

public services.

E-mail : jmo242@g.uky.edu

Nicolai Petrovsky is associate professor

in the Martin School of Public Policy and

Administration at the University of Kentucky.

His research interests include government

performance, managerial succession, and

citizen interactions with public services. He

has done extensive work on these topics in

two collaborative projects on English local

government and British central government.

E-mail : nicolai.petrovsky@uky.edu

Abstract : Citizen satisfaction with public services has been shown to depend on citizens’ expectations and their

perceptions of performance. If performance exceeds expectations, satisfaction is likely; if performance falls short of

expectations, dissatisfaction is likely. The existing evidence on this process covers the United States and the United

Kingdom. The authors generalize the idea of expectation-driven citizen satisfaction (the “expectancy-disconfirmation

model”) theoretically and empirically to an institutional context of limited accountability and widespread citizen

distrust. Using a survey of a broad cross-section of the general adult population in Guadalajara, Mexico, in 2014, this

article finds support for the expectancy-disconfirmation model in this very different context. The authors also test for

an effect of the type of expectation using an embedded, randomized experiment but do not find evidence of a difference

between normative and empirical expectations. Findings support the usefulness of the expectancy-disconfirmation

model in a wide range of contexts.

Practitioner Points

• In a survey of citizens in a large Mexican city, we find evidence that their satisfaction with local public

services arises from the same process as in wealthy advanced democracies: if service performance exceeds

citizens’ expectations, satisfaction is likely; if performance falls short of their expectations, dissatisfaction is

likely.

• If citizen satisfaction is a goal, it is valuable to understand both what citizens expect from a service and how

they perceive its performance.

• Managing citizens’ expectations downward is a dangerous tactic because expectations are directly associated

with satisfaction. This means that dissatisfaction can result not only from lackluster service provision but also

from citizens’ resignation and lack of expectations for a service.

• It appears that citizens who support the incumbents in charge of a service are somewhat more satisfied, all

else being equal. If a local government or other public organization wants to obtain an accurate estimate of

the extent of satisfaction in the population, it is necessary to ensure that the surveyed sample of citizens is

not biased toward those favorably inclined toward the incumbents.

T he degree to which citizens are satisfied with

public services carries substantial consequences

in a democracy. Understanding the process

leading to satisfaction or dissatisfaction is therefore of

great scholarly and practical interest. For more than a

decade now, public administration research has been

converging on the expectancy-disconfirmation model,

originally developed in psychology and marketing,

as the most promising approach. In the model,

citizens assess performance relative to a referent, most

typically their expectations. Consequently, there is

now an active research agenda concerned with citizens’

expectations, and several studies have corroborated

the model in the United States and United Kingdom

(Jacobsen, Snyder, and Saultz 2015 ; James 2009 ;

Poister and Thomas 2011 ; Roch and Poister 2006 ;

Van Ryzin 2004, 2006, 2013). Little is yet known

about the influence of citizens’ expectations in settings

in which democracy has arrived relatively recently, the

rule of law is not fully established, and trust in public

administration is comparatively lower. Also, in many

fledgling democracies, a much larger percentage of

citizens interact personally with government officials.

Citizens’ expectations for public services could arise

from a background that differs both attitudinally and

experientially from rich, consolidated democracies,

which means that we cannot take for granted whether

the expectancy-disconfirmation model will work

there.

The first aim in this article is to test whether

the expectancy-disconfirmation model of citizen

satisfaction works in a fledgling democracy with

low levels of trust in government and public

Nicolai Petrovsky

Jue Young Mok

University of Kentucky

Filadelfo León-Cázares

University of Guadalajara, Mexico

Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction in a Young Democracy:

A Test of the Expectancy-Disconfirmation Model