Assessing dangerousness in policing

• Author: Lisa M. Dario,Michael D. White,John A. Shjarback
• Date: 01 February 2019
• Published date: 01 February 2019
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12408

DOI: 10.1111/1745-9133.12408

RESEARCH ARTICLE

POLICE OFFICER DEATHS IN THE U.S.

Assessing dangerousness in policing

An analysis of officer deaths in the United States, 1970–2016

Michael D. White1Lisa M. Dario2John A. Shjarback3

1Arizona State University

2Florida Atlantic University

3University of Texasat El Paso

Correspondence

MichaelD. White, School of Criminology and

Criminal Justice, Arizona State University,

411N. Central Avenue Suite 680, Phoenix,

AZ85004.

Email:mdwhite1@asu.edu

Research Summary: A robust body of research findings

has established that policing is a dangerous profession.

Few scholars, however, have investigated the full picture

of the hazards in policing, which includes deaths occur-

ring in both felonious and nonfelonious circumstances. In

this study, we examine nearly 50 years of all police officer

line-of-duty deaths (1970–2016) using data from the Offi-

cer Down Memorial Page. We focus on long-term trends

in felonious and nonfelonious deaths annually, as well as

on trends in incident-level characteristics. We also employ

interrupted time-series analysis (ARIMA) to test the “war

on cops” thesis post–Ferguson.

Policy Implications: The number of line-of-duty deaths

has declined dramatically over the last five decades. Polic-

ing is a much safer profession now than it was 50 years

ago. Despite a 75% drop in deaths, however, there has

been remarkable stability in geographic-, temporal-,

and incident-level characteristics. Also, several notable

changes over time reflect favorably on improved safety in

policing, such as declines in deaths resulting from aircraft

crashes and accidental gunfire. Other trends are troubling,

though, such as the stability in deaths during auto pursuits

and a two-fold increase in deaths from vehicular assaults.

Currently, the “war on cops” thesis is not supported by any

Criminology & Public Policy. 2019;18:11–35. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp © 2019 American Society of Criminology 11

12 WHITE ET AL.

evidence, and we apply the 50-year lens in this study to

provide important context for understanding recent trends

in officer deaths.

KEYWORDS

line-of-duty deaths, police officer deaths, violence against police

The “bulletproof cop” does not exist. The officers who protect us must also be protected

against incapacitating physical, mental, and emotional health problemsas well as against

the hazards of their job. Their wellness and safety are crucial for them, their colleagues,

and their agencies, as well as the well-being of the communities they serve.

—President's Task Force on 21st Century Policing, 2015: 62

Research findings over the last several decades have consistently shown policing to be a dangerous

profession. Bierie (2017) noted that approximately 10% of all police officers are assaulted in a given

year. Data from the National Institute for Occupational Safety (NIOSH, 1996) indicate that police

officers experience the second highest rate of workplace homicides (behind taxi drivers), and more

generally,researchers have found that police have the highest occupational rate of violent victimization

(fatal and nonfatal assaults; Duhart, 2001; Fridell, Faggiani, Taylor, Brito, & Kubu, 2009). The focus

on dangerousness has become more acute since 2014 as a series of controversial police killings of

citizens has produced public outrage, riots, and a national movement demanding police reform (i.e.,

blacklivesmatter.com).At the same time, there have been several high-profile attacks on police officers,

most notably in Brooklyn (twoofficers killed, December 2014), Dallas (five officers killed, July 2016),

and Baton Rouge (three officers killed, July 2016). These attacks haveled some to conclude t hat there

is a “war on cops” (Canterbury, 2016; Mac Donald, 2016; Safir, 2015).1

A sizeable body of research has been aimed at exploring the dangerousness of the police profession

by examining available data on feloniousassaults and killings of police officers (Fr idell & Pate,1993;

Kaminski & Marvell, 2002; Kent, 2010; Lester, 1981, 1984; Meyer, Magedanz, Dahlin, & Chapman,

1981). These researchers have produced an accurate estimate of how often officers are assaulted and

killed (Bierie, 2017; Maguire, Nix, & Campbell, 2017) and a firm understanding of the community-

level (Bailey & Peterson, 1994; Jacobs & Carmichael, 2002), organizational-level (Fridell & Pate,

2001; Kaminski, 2002), and incident-level features (Mastrofski,Snipes, & Supina, 1996) that are asso-

ciated with the phenomena. In fact, each year the Federal Bureau of Investigation releases a report on

felonious assaults and killings of police, based on the Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted

(LEOKA) Program (fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/leoka).2Moreover, Maguire et al. (2017) recently used

data from the Officer Down Memorial (ODMP) webpage (odmp.org) to test whether felonious killings

of police have increased notably since the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson.

Felonious killings of police represent a critically important phenomenon worthy of empirical study,

but these tragic cases represent only a subset of the larger universe of police officer line-of-duty deaths.

Both LEOKA and the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF) report data on

accidental or nonfelonious deaths of police officers, although examinations of those data are conducted

infrequently.The lack of research on nonfelonious deaths of officers is troubling given that data suggest

that nonfelonious deaths may outnumber felonious killings (nleomf.com; President's Task Force on

21st Century Policing, 2015). Brandl (1996: 256) noted the “conceptualization of dangerousness in the

police occupation in terms of the murder and assault of police officers, to the exclusion of accidents,