Are Economists Harmful?

• Author: Murray, Phil R.
• Position: The Tragic Science: How Economists Cause Harm (Even as They Aspire to Do Good

The Tragic Science: How Economists Cause Harm Even as They Aspire to Do Good

By George F. DeMartino 265 pp.; University of Chicago Press, 2022

In his recent book The Tragic Science, University of Denver economist George DeMartino argues that economists have too much influence over public policy and claims that their influence is morally unjustifiable. "Regrettably/' he writes, "the risk of harming is ineliminable from economic practice. This is the tragedy of economics."

He contends that economists do not appreciate the harm they do. "Having done the math," he complains, "the economist can assess policy without giving much thought to those the policy will harm." Readers of the book will find plenty of criticisms of how economists think as well as many recommendations for how economists "can do much better."

Salient ignorance / DeMartino begins by introducing the problem of "irreparable ignorance." By that, he means economists "do not and cannot possibly know all they need to know to design interventions that avoid unanticipated consequences." There is "what we don't know now and might someday know, but only after the moment the missing knowledge is needed for decision making." Perhaps an example is not knowing the benefits and costs when regulating ozone levels in the air. There also is that which we might not know because it cannot be known before acting. Finally, an economist does not know "what lies beyond the domain of economic expertise--not just at the rudimentary state of economic expertise yesterday or today, but at any conceivable level of the science as conducted by the smarter and better-trained economists of the future." Unfortunately, DeMartino offers no examples of such hubris.

Irreparable ignorance has implications for economic methodology. DeMartino objects to what he calls "time-travel machines--economic models that permit [economists] to see tomorrow, today." "The problem with economic time-travel machines," he continues, "is that individuals who populate the economy, just like economists, face irreparable ignorance." One might think that the more we learn, the less there is that we do not know. But the author points out that technological progress simultaneously increases uncertainty. For instance, social media might be useful for entertainment and business, but an unforeseen consequence might be addiction.

He provides an illustration showing that even though the "island of knowledge" grows larger in the "infinite ocean of ignorance," the border between the island and the ocean, called "salient ignorance," necessarily becomes larger too. One...