Anticipated Effects of Across‐the‐Board Reductions in Time Served

• Author: Gary Sweeten
• Published date: 01 August 2018
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12393
• Date: 01 August 2018

EDITORIAL INTRODUCTION

PRISON LENGTH OF STAY AND

RECIDIVISM

Anticipated Effects of Across-the-Board

Reductions in Time Served

Gary Sweeten

Arizona State University

At the end of 2016, more than 1.5 million people were incarcerated in state or

federal prisons in the United States. The prison population dropped by 1.4% from

2015 to 2016, and since its peak in 2009, it has dropped by 6.8% (Kaeble and

Cowhig, 2018). This sustained but modest reduction in the use of incarceration has not

been accompanied by sustained increases in crime rates (Federal Bureau of Investigation,

2017). Despite this modest decrease in imprisonment, the United States continues to be

a world leader in its incarceration rate, housing 1 in 5 of the world’s prisoners (including

jail inmates) despite making up less than 5% of the world’s population (Walmsley, 2016).

Although the 2016 incarceration rate was the lowest it had been since 1996 (Kaeble and

Cowhig, 2018), with more than 600 jail or prison inmates per 100,000 individuals, it is far

above the pre-incarceration boom rate of approximately 110 per 100,000 (Blumstein and

Cohen, 1973) and the world prison population rate of 144 per 100,000 (Walmsley, 2016).

Much has been written on the causes of this incarceration boom, its negative collateral

consequences, and what can be done to reduce its negative effects without increasing crime

(e.g., Clear and Frost,2014; Nagin, Cullen, and Jonson, 2009; Tonry, 2014; Travis,Western,

and Redburn, 2014). Given the millions of lives the incarceration boom has affected, and the

volumes of research written about it, surprisingly few experimental or quasi-experimental

studies have been aimed at assessing its effects. In their 2009 review of the literature,

Nagin et al. found only five experimental or quasi-experimental studies of incarceration

on recidivism and only two experimental assessments of the length of incarceration on

recidivism. Since that review, several more studies havebeen published in which the effects

of time served on recidivism have been assessed, with most scholars finding small effects,

if any. The knowledge base on this issue remains sparse, and most studies are open to the

criticism of selection bias.

Direct correspondence to Gary Sweeten, School of Criminology & Criminal Justice, Arizona State University,

411 N. Central Avenue, MC 4420, Phoenix, AZ 85004 (e-mail: Gary.Sweeten@asu.edu).

DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12393 C2018 American Society of Criminology 727

Criminology & Public Policy rVolume 17 rIssue 3