And We Wonder Why Criminology Is Sometimes Considered Irrelevant in Real‐World Policy Conversations

• Published date: 01 August 2016
• Author: Anthony A. Braga,Robert Apel
• Date: 01 August 2016
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12235

POLICY ESSAY

DIRECTIONS IN DETERRENCE THEORY

AND POLICY

And We Wonder Why Criminology

Is Sometimes Considered Irrelevant

in Real-World Policy Conversations

Anthony A. Braga

Northeastern University

Robert Apel

Rutgers University

“The ability to read . . . is fun and it is often useful in scholarly pursuits.”

(Hirschi and Hindelang, 1978: 611)

Recent events in Ferguson, MO; New York, NY; Chicago, IL; and elsewhere in

the United States have exposed rifts in the relationships between the police and

the communities they protect and serve. These incidents have damaged police

legitimacy by promoting perceptions among community members that police do not play

an appropriate role in making and implementing rules governing community conduct

(Kochel, 2015; see also Bottoms and Tankebe, 2012; Tyler, 2004). Research has suggested

that too many police departments engage in excessive surveillance and enforcement practices

in urban neighborhoods that contribute to mass incarceration and racial disparities in the

criminal justice system (Young and Petersilia, 2016). Torestore their diminished legitimacy,

police must renew their efforts to develop, implement, and sustain crime-control policies

that are both fair and effective.

A growing body of research evidence has so far suggested that police departments should

pursue strategies artfully tailored to specific risks such as hot spots, repeat victims, high-rate

offenders, or gang hostilities (Braga, 2008). Nevertheless, how police departments choose to

address these recurring problems may either improve or further damage their relationships

with minority residents. As suggested by the President’s TaskForce on 21st Century Policing

Direct correspondence to Anthony A. Braga, Northeastern University, College of Social Sciences and

Humanities, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 204 Churchill Hall, 360 Huntington Avenue, Boston,

Massachusetts 02115 (e-mail: a.braga@neu.edu).

DOI:10.1111/1745-9133.12235 C2016 American Society of Criminology 813

Criminology & Public Policy rVolume 15 rIssue 3

Policy Essay Directions in Deterrence Theory and Policy

(2015: 42), “[a]ny prevention strategy that unintentionally violates civil rights, compromises

police legitimacy, or undermines trust is counterproductive.” This is why the task force

recommended that law enforcement agencies develop and adopt policies and strategies that

reinforce the importance of community engagement in managing public safety.

Most of the current debate in criminal justice policy circles considers how police de-

partments keep neighborhoods safe without engaging overly harsh enforcement strategies.

Police crime-control policy should be rooted in the idea of preventing crimes rather than

in simply reacting to crimes by increasing numbers of arrests and criminal summonses.

As such, Durlauf and Nagin (2011) considered whether targeted policing could simulta-

neously reduce crime and imprisonment by increasing potential offenders’ perceived risk

of apprehension and by reducing their opportunities to commit crimes. The available ev-

idence suggests that, if properly oriented, police could do both. More recently, Nagin,

Solow, and Lum (2015) (herein referred to as NSL) offered a mathematical model of crime

target choices of would-be offenders to illustrate how police could impact the distribution

of criminal opportunities. We agree that their model is an important heuristic device to

examine the efficiency and effectiveness of varying police deployment strategies.

In this issue, Justin Pickett and Sean Roche (2016), however, suggest that the mathe-

matical model developed by NSL (2015) is inconsistent with the existing research evidence

and that their policy recommendations are premature. In support of their contention,

Pickett and Roche (2016) attempt to undermine the research evidence supporting key

aspects of the model. Throughout their article, they highlight the findings of a very small

number of seriously flawed observational studies that have shown that objective and

subjective sanction risks are unrelated. They then raise some superficial concerns to discount

the findings of systematic reviews of the effects of much larger numbers of controlled

program evaluations that assess the impacts of targeted policing on crime. In this policy

essay, we assess the persuasiveness of Pickett and Roche’s (2016) arguments. Nevertheless,

we are also very concerned about the implications of their key policy recommendation—a

call for further research—at a time when police departments and community members

need concrete guidance on the development of fair and effective crime-control strategies.

The field of criminology seems to be becoming more invested in the idea that scientific

research should be relevant to the world of practice (Loader and Sparks, 2010; Uggen

and Inderbitzin, 2010). Unfortunately, the Pickett and Roche article contributes to the

perceived irrelevance of criminology in real-world policy conversations by suggesting policy

makers, practitioners, and concerned citizens should refrain from adopting evidence-based

practices until ivory tower intellectuals settle a background theoretical debate.

Evidence on Perceptual Deterrence

Pickett and Roche (2016) take as their point of departure one of the core tenets of

deterrence—that subjective beliefs about punishment are correlated with objective pun-

ishment risk, that is, that individuals’ perceptions are at least partially grounded in reality.

814 Criminology & Public Policy