Ohio CPAs predict economic recovery is at least one year away in OSCPA business poll: credit crunch likely to inhibit Ohio's business growth.

• Position: Member BENEFITS - Survey

The day after Sen. Barrack Obama was elected president of the United States promising sweeping change for America, The Ohio Society conducted its annual Ohio Business Poll of members. CPAs participating in the survey predict it will be at least a year before Ohio or the nation sees any significant change in the economy.

More than 60% of CPAs agreed that a sustainable economic recovery will not occur until the last half of 2009 or the first half of 2010. They pointed to risky lending and consumers borrowing beyond their means as the top factors contributing to the national financial crisis.

More than 500 CPAs participated in the Ohio Business Poll, including corporate officers, partners in CPA firms and sole practitioners. Survey topics ranged from the national economy to how the regulatory environment could affect business growth in the state.

Only 37% felt that tack of regulatory oversight was a major factor in the current economic crisis. While 7 in 10 CPAs said the government's intervention efforts may be somewhat effective or effective in stabilizing the economy, 61% did not favor more government regulation as a solution.

CPAs did point to a need for more public education on lending and personal finance (39%) to help prevent future crises, while 23% advocated a ban on sub-prime lending.

OHIO BUSINESS GROWTH AND CAPITAL INVESTMENTS

CPAs participating in the poll felt the national economic crisis, combined with state-specific factors, is inhibiting business growth in Ohio. Fifty percent of respondents cited Ohio's tax climate and 32% named the auto industry crisis as top factors. In sharp contrast to the 2007 poll, 77% forecast a decrease in capital investments during 2009, compared with 34% last year. Eight in 10 CPAs predicted Ohio's job growth will not keep pace with the rest of the U.S.

In addition, two-thirds (63%) of members participating expressed concern that Ohio businesses do not have access to adequate credit to sustain and grow their companies over the next year.

CPAs' predictions for growth in Ohio are similar to the opinions their peers hold nationally for growth elsewhere. In a Fourth Quarter Economic Outlook Survey sponsored by the AICPA, 41% of respondents were pessimistic about U.S. business growth in 2009 while only 26% were optimistic.

"The current economic situation has been building for some time and a turnaround won't take place overnight," said J. Matthew Yuskewich, CPA with Winterset CPA...