Yellowstone County: energy impacts continue.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Statistical data

The Yellowstone County economy continues to benefit from the indirect impacts of the Bakken oil field developments on the Montana-North Dakota line. Even though Billings is more than 300 miles and five hours driving time from the epicenter of the drilling activity in Williston, North Dakota, it is an attractive location for the indirect and service activities associated with the oil boom. A number of North Dakota cities are closer to Williston, but at best they have roughly half of the population of Yellowstone County. This means that industries such as finance, wholesale trade, and professional services are probably much larger and have more depth and resources in Billings than in the North Dakota cities.

Since 2010, some of the fastest growth has been in the Billings' industries that serve rural areas, including professional and technical services, wholesale trade, and finance and insurance. The mining industry also increased significantly. Because there are few mines or oil wells in Yellowstone County, this growth probably represents the support positions and central office functions serving the activities in rural areas.

Not everything is rosy in Yellowstone County. If the EPA declares the sulfur dioxide levels to be in nonattainment status, air pollution abatement costs could be high in some of Billings' older manufacturing plants. Also, if the current drop in oil prices continues and the Bakken cools, the impacts would reach Billings as well.

Yellowstone County posted approximately 4 percent growth in both 2011 and 2012. These figures rank among the highest for a major city in Montana. Growth decelerated to roughly 1.3 percent in 2013, perhaps due to a change in data definitions.

Overall growth is expected to be between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent per year from 2015 to 2018, and it takes into consideration an economic slowdown in the Bakken oil and gas fields resulting from lower oil prices. These forecasts incorporate the proposed upgrade of the refinery in Laurel but may be too optimistic if the negative Bakken...