Year of the decision.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: STATE OF THE NATION - US economic policy - Essay

HISTORICAL TRENDS TELL US that difficult political decisions rarely are, if ever, made during a presidential election. The U.S. has painful choices before it. The nation is swimming in deficits and debt--and could drown in them. The consequences would be dire: the currency debased; government bonds devalued; borrowing exorbitant; and defense, education, and infrastructure spending crowded out by debt serving. These are just samplings of what parade of honors could await us if the current Congress and Pres. Barack Obama do not address the problem. The day of reckoning could be closer than we realize. Economists Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University have analyzed more than 200 years of data on 44 countries and found that "growth deteriorates markedly" when total government debt exceeds 90% of the economy. As of 2010, we reached that figure.

The challenge must be faced now. The rumblings are there: the astonishing success of the Tea Party candidates in the 2010 elections; the level of bipartisan support for the Bowles-Simpson National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform; the willingness of the House Republicans to slice spending dollars from the current fiscal year budget; the frontal attack on the high costs of public pensions and benefits from governors of both parties; and the painful examples of Greece and Ireland when debt swangles the state.

In his State of the Union Address, Pres. Obama paid lip service to the problem. He offered no ideas on controlling entitlements and later presented budgets with large deficits as far as the eye can see. He seemed to be playing a political game, waiting for the House Republicans to offer the first proposals and then pouncing on them. It may be clever politics, but it is no measure of leadership. Some in his own party, such as Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are running out of patience. Manchin staled on the Senate floor that Obama has "failed to lead this debate or offer a serious proposal for spending and cuts that he would be willing to fight for."

Others are not waiting for the President. Four current senators on the Bowles-Simpson Commission, two liberal Democrats (Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Dick Durbin of Illinois) and two conservative Republicans (Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and Mike Crapo of Idaho) voted for the Commission's recommendations. These proposals involved steep cuts in entitlement spending and fundamental tax reform. When...