A year of decision.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: State Of The Nation - George W. Bush presidency

IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, the fate of George W. Bush's presidency will be decided by the events of 2003. He has surprised many by his steady leadership in the aftermath of Sept. 11. Consequently, his approval ratings stayed at remarkably high levels, and he led his party to a historic Congressional victory last November. Only twice since 1862 has the party in control of the Executive Branch gained seats in the House of Representatives in a midterm election. Gaining seats in the Senate in the first two years of an administration is almost as rare.

Despite this political success, Bush has yet to meet the major test of his presidency. This probably will be his year of decision. We have yet to know whether this president will actually put his footprint on history. Will he be a president who leaves office having actually altered events? Few have made such a mark. Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, the two most-consequential presidents of the 20th century, presided over historic shifts in global and domestic affairs. Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton left not a footprint on history, but a stain. Bush is unlikely to do that, but will his presidency matter in the long run?

In world affairs, Bush faces complex challenges with few easy solutions. Playing the thankless role of leader of the world's dominant power requires a clear strategic vision of the nation's interests and values, and an equally clear understanding of who and what threatens them.

Americans like to have their foreign policy explained with simple moral nostrums--making the world safe for democracy or ridding the world of evildoers. The fact is that we can do neither. Power politics has rough edges and often requires unsavory allies to defeat even-more-unsavory enemies. Why else did we ally with the Soviet Union's Joseph Stalin in World War II?

One principle must continue to guide American foreign policy: No single hostile power can be allowed to dominate the crucial areas of the world. Since the beginning of the 20th century and the collapse of Great Britain as the great balancer of power and protector of the world's sea-lanes, American foreign policy has been guided by that simple postulate. In the two World Wars, we intervened to prevent Germany from dominating Europe and Japan from doing so in Asia. In the Cold War, we mobilized an alliance to prevent the Soviet Union and China from dominating Europe and Asia. In the post-Cold War world, we cannot allow a single hostile power to...