Woe is the politics of immigration.

• Author: Thomson, James W.
• Position: The World Today - Brief article

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IN THE MID 1960s, Congress passed a series of extraordinary laws intended to guarantee the civil liberties (and voting rights) of black people with the clear purpose of ensuring their regrettably long-deferred entry into the mainstream of American life. Shortly afterwards, Congress enacted another remarkable bill with scarcely any public debate or fanfare--the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965. Since its passage, this immigration law, along with successive legislation, has led to social, cultural, and political consequences that have overshadowed the effects of the civil rights laws.

By 1965, immigration had been negligible since the high tide of European influx to the U.S. prior to World War I. Immigration was not then a polarizing issue. Both major political parties supported the new law, which supplanted the Immigration Act of 1924; the latter legislation had relied upon dubious estimates of American ethnic origins to determine national immigration quotas. During the 50 years prior to 1965, immigration to the U.S. was minor; during the 1930s, there even was a modest reverse flow of immigrants returning to Europe. For them, life in America had proven too harsh; many returned to their homelands.

In a radical departure from the past, the 1965 Immigration Act scrapped the national origins approach (favoring European immigrants) for policies that gave preference to those from non-European nations. In practical terms, the 1965 law opened the floodgates to large-scale immigration from every country. The consequences were astonishing; from 1965-2006, the U.S. accepted more than 40,000,000 newcomers, largely from Third World countries--and there is no apparent end in sight to this floodtide.

Troubling issues

Eventually, the U.S. will have to confront the most unsettling effects of its immigration policies: a short list of troubling issues that includes rapid population growth; greater turmoil spurred by ethnic, racial, and sectarian rivalries; possible downward pressure on living standards; and potentially dire environmental consequences, as the U.S. someday could surpass China as the world's most populous country.

According to a recent Census Bureau study, by 2100, the U.S. may have twice as many people (600,000,000) as at present, with today's minority groups forming a 60% majority. In fact, the actual population could be much greater, as the highest of the three Census Bureau projections calculates a count of 1,000,000,000 Americans. Immigration still will drive population growth, but fewer immigrants will come from Latin America and more from Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Only a handful will be European--and that fraction of the total population which can trace its ethnic origins exclusively to Europe is expected to diminish rapidly.

By 2050, according to the most probable Census Bureau forecast, the U.S. will have about 404,000,000 people; by 2100, there will be 571,000,000. The number over age 65 will be about equal to the number younger than 18, and more than 5,000,000 citizens will be 100 or older. However, high group intermarriage rates likely will blur many ethnic and racial distinctions. By 2020, the non-Hispanic white portion of the...