Windpower: small, but growing fast.

• Author: Flavin, Christopher

Wind power is now the world's fastest growing energy source. Global wind power generating capacity rose to 4,900 megawatts at the end of 1995, up from 3,700 megawatts a year earlier [ILLUSTRATION FOR FIGURE 1 OMITTED]. Since 1990, total installed wind power capacity has risen by 150 percent, representing an annual growth rate of 20 percent.

By contrast, nuclear power is growing at a rate of less than 1 percent per year, while world coal combustion has not grown at all in the 1990s.

If the world's roughly 25,000 wind turbines were spinning simultaneously, they could light 122 million 40-watt light bulbs or power over a million suburban homes. In the windy north German state of Schleswig-Holstein, wind power already provides 8 percent of the electricity.

Although it now generates less than 1 percent of the world's electricity, the rapid growth and steady technological advance of wind power suggest that it could become an important energy source for many nations within the next decade. The computer industry has demonstrated the potentially powerful impact of double digit growth rates. The fact that personal computers provided less than 1 percent of world computing power in 1980 did not prevent them - a decade later - from dominating the industry, and changing the very nature of work.

Wind power is being propelled largely by its environmental advantages. Unlike coal-fired power plants, the leading source of electricity today, wind power produces no health-damaging air pollution or acid rain. Nor does it produce carbon dioxide - the leading greenhouse gas now destabilizing the world's atmosphere.

In many regions, wind power is now competitive with new fossil fuel-fired power plants. At an average wind speed of 6 meters per second (13 miles per hour) wind power now costs 5-7 cents per kilowatt-hour, similar or slightly lower than the range for new coal plants. As wind turbines are further improved, with lighter and more aerodynamic blades as well as better control systems, and as they are produced in greater quantity, costs could fall even further, making wind power one of the world's most economical electricity sources.

The modern wind power industry established its roots in Denmark and California in the early 1980s. Spurred by government research funds, generous tax incentives, and guaranteed access to the electricity grids, a sizable wind industry was created. However, development slowed dramatically at the end of the decade as government tax...