Will Air Force's Divest to Invest Strategy Fly in 2024?

• Author: Carberry, Sean
• Position: BUDGET MATTERS

If the Air Force gets its wish, it will clear out 310 older aircraft in fiscal year 2024 and acquire 95 new ones while investing in research, development, testing and evaluation to develop future platforms like the B-21 Raider, Next-Generation Air Dominance system--including unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft--and new tankers to refuel the fleet.

However, Congress has routinely blocked the service from divesting platforms, raising questions about whether the Air Force will get everything it wants in 2024.

The topline 2024 Defense Department budget request comes in at $842 billion--$26 billion, or 3.2 percent, more than Congress appropriated for fiscal year 2023. The Department of the Air Force's slice of the pie is $259 billion, but once the $44 billion in classified "non-blue" funding that is passed through the Air Force budget is removed, the net is $215 billion--which includes the $30 billion Space Force budget--according to budget documents released March 13.

That's one other thing the service wants to divest--the pass-through budget. Classified programs--which may or may not involve the Air Force --are tacked onto the Department of the Air Force's budget each year, making it seem like it's receiving a larger piece of the action.

However, that's likely a losing battle. A fight the Air Force hopes to win this year is its plan to retire more than 300 aircraft, including 42 A-10s, 57 F-15C/DS, 32 Block 20 F-22S--which the service said are not combat certified--37 HH-60G rescue helicopters and the last 24 KC-10 tankers in the fleet.

Last year, the Air Force sought to mothball 150 aircraft, including A-10s, F-22S, F-158, E-38 and KC-46S, but Congress pared back the request and prohibited divestment of the F-22S and F-15S and reduced the retirement rate of other aircraft.

Travis Sharp, director of defense budget studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, said that each year the department is hoping to save $2 billion to $3 billion through divestments, and Congress routinely rejects many of the requests.

"Based on that pattern of behavior, it's safe to assume if DoD is seeking to save, let's say $3 billion again this year in divestments, they're not going to get the full $3 billion," he said. "They never are able to generate as much money through divestments as they hope."

It's a recurring pattern, and difficult to put an exact percentage on how much Congress rejects each year, he added.

"It doesn't make a big...