Wide Range of Outcomes Possible For New Drone Export Policies.

• Author: Harper, Jon

The Trump administration is making a push to facilitate exports of unmanned aerial systems, but how much of an impact it will have depends on a variety of factors, analysts said.

In April, the White House announced policy changes aimed at loosening restrictions on the international sale of U.S.-made drones. They include: allowing direct commercial sales to authorized U.S. allies and partners; reducing scrutiny of systems with strike technologies; improving financing options; streamlining processes; and eliminating other bureaucratic red tape.

Government reviews of potential sales would also give greater weight to their impact on the defense industrial base, and the ability of overseas buyers to obtain similar technology from other countries.

'Although the U.S. leads the way in UAS technology, overly restrictive policies enacted by the previous administration have accelerated an undesirable outcome," Peter Navarro, assistant to the president for trade and manufacturing policy, said during a conference call with reporters when the new initiative was unveiled.

"Strategic competitors like China are aggressively marketing to and making sales in international markets that are forecast to be worth more than $50 billion a year within the next decade," he noted.

The administration's new export policies "will level the playing field," he said.

"Expanding international sales opportunities ... will keep our defense industrial base in the vanguard of emerging defense technologies while creating thousands of additional jobs with good wages and generating substantial export revenues," he added.

President Donald Trump gave federal agencies 60 days to consult with industry and trade associations and come up with an implementation plan. As of press time, the plan had not been publicly released.

Analysts said the changes will likely lead to an increase in drone exports, but to what extent will hinge on several factors.

"It very much will depend on implementation," said Andrew Hunter, director of the defense-industrial initiatives group at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "If implemented aggressively I think it could represent a pretty significant shift," although "it's not clear that that's going to happen," he added.

Perhaps the most significant change is allowing unmanned aerial systems to be exported through direct commercial sales instead of foreign military sales, Hunter said.

"One of the hallmarks of the Obama administration policy was in...