Why you're smarter than the C.I.A.

• Position: TECHNOLOGY - Central Intelligence Agency - Good Judgment Project - Brief article

Predicting world events is tough. But it turns out average citizens may be better at it than the C.I.A. The Good Judgment Project (GJP)--a four-year study by the University of Pennsylvania, UC Berkeley, and intelligence experts--has recruited thousands of people worldwide to forecast everything from North Korean politics to Syria's civil war just by looking online. The result: Predictions were often as much as 30 percent more accurate than those of savvy intelligence officers. The GJP says it's evidence of the "wisdom of the crowd" theory, which says the average estimate of a large number of people is usually more accurate than that of a...