Why there might not be a GOP tsunami.

• Author: Cobble, Steve
• Position: Cover story

Earlier this year, Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus declared that the 2014 midterm elections were shaping up to be a "tsunami" for the GOP. His comment was tasteless, but was it true? Unlikely.

Let's start with the House of Representatives, where there may be small GOP gains--if any gains at all. This may surprise you, because you've doubtless heard some pundit blab on about the six-year itch that is likely to hurt the Democrats in the middle of Barack Obama's second term.

Historically, voters do tend to rebel after six years of one President in office and throw out a bunch of his House allies. But the massive gains won by the Tea Party in 2010 mean that there are just not that many new House seats sitting out there for Republicans this time around. Plus, House Republicans poll lower than head lice.

Or consider this year's governors' races, which actually tilt slightly toward the Democrats at the moment. Because governors serve four-year terms, the Republicans have to defend many more governors who won during the Tea Party wave of 2010. There is a decent chance that the Democrats can actually take back some seats this year.

As I write this, Maine and Pennsylvania seem likely to retire conservative Republicans, while Democratic incumbents are struggling in Illinois and Arkansas. But most of the next batch of contested gubernatorial races are in states held by Republicans, including some of the best-known GOP governors, like Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Rick Scott in Florida. If these big names get the boot, or if Republican incumbents are upset in states like Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, or South Carolina, then the Democrats are likely to make gubernatorial gains this year, interfering with the predicted GOP wave.

However, I've been working in electoral politics since the McGovern campaign in 1972, and I'm well aware that some events count more than others. If Republicans gain six seats in the Senate, Priebus may get bragging rights anyway.

As of now, it's too close to call. It's so close that it may not be over on Election Night, if leading candidates in states like Louisiana and Georgia fail to break 50 percent and have to go to a runoff.

Harry Reid is barely hanging on to control of his chamber, as Democratic candidates face poor terrain, missing turnout, and big money.

What do I mean by poor terrain? Because Senators serve six-year terms, unlike governors, and because 2008 was an excellent year for Democrats...