Why the space station should be saved.

• Author: Goldin, Daniel S.

THERE IS a new summer ritual that is becoming all too familiar. That is the annual debate over the fate of the Space Station and, with it, the space program.

These days, there is more to the debate than the nuts and bolts of space hardware. With a new century looming, the issue is how to confront the future. Like the Sirens of myth, the neo-Malthusians already are gathering on the rocks.

Their chants of limits and adverse social trends echo across the waters of public discourse. They don't think there is much that can be done to meet the challenges of the future, and they are critical of those who try.

At first blush, Space Station votes in the Congress may seem to have little to do with the renaissance of a 200-year-old apocalyptic philosophy. Nevertheless, science, technology, and faith in the future are at the heart of this issue. To see the connection is to understand the danger.

Thomas Malthus was an English cleric obsessed with a vision of worldwide famine, pestilence, and social catastrophe. At the onset of the 19th century, he saw a race against time, brought about by the inevitable clash between unchecked human population growth and finite resources. He didn't think the race would end well for mankind.

According to Malthus, "the power of population is ... greater than the power in the Earth to produce subsistence for Man." Despite the fact that he has been proven wrong for 200 years, visions of a Malthusian future have lingered with society ever since.

Where he erred, and where America's space program holds a key, is in the application of science and technology. Malthus didn't foresee it, and thus missed the impact of the Industrial Revolution even while it was rumbling into action all around him.

The machines and the new knowledge of the 19th century changed the equation. Production increased dramatically, easily outpacing the growth in population. The moldboard plow and McCormick's reaper transformed the farms of the world, while industrial production altered entire economies and elevated the living standards of society. Malthus' numbers were correct, but his conclusions bypassed an entire age.

The same error creeps into the theories of today's neo-Malthusians. They do not see a brighter day ahead, a new age ready for the shaping. They discount the power of technology and harbor dark misgivings about the lessons of science and the resilience of the human spirit.

In the debate over the Space Station, the high potentials of science...